PHA Technical Analysis: Catch Below P2.24 or Wait for a Breakout Above P2.61?

Premiere Horizon Alliance Corporation (PHA) Technical Analysis

Premiere Horizon Alliance Corporation (PHA) went down by 0.85 percent at P2.32 per share as of February 3, 2021. The major support of PHA sits near P1.65, while its major resistance stands near P3.20.

Using a Fibonacci, I see a support level near P2.24, confluent with the 38.20 percent retracement of the Fibonacci. This is the precursor to P1.65. On the other hand, I see a minor resistance near P2.61, which is confluent with the 61.80 percent retracement of the Fibonacci. It’s a precursor to P3.20.

Local traders are the main drivers of today’s price action. The foreign investors only registered a net foreign selling worth P3.9 million. Although the foreign investors are net buyers year-to-date, what’s left in their year-to-date net foreign isn’t a significant amount.

Due to the gaps and larger-than-usual heights of the candlesticks’ bodies in the past trading weeks, PHA garnered a nearly 309 percent 10-day historical volatility score, translating to an extremely high risk level. If you’re a beginner, I do not recommend stocks with a high erraticity level, such as PHA. Start with stocks with a 10-day historical volatility score of less than 50 percent. However, you need to identify a confirmed buy signal before you buy such stocks. The risk level of a stock is not the only indicator you need to watch out for.

Even though the +DMI hovers the -DMI, I can’t give the bulls the score because the bearish MACD shows that PHA is more likely to move sideways with a bearish bias.

The 10SMACD combo of PHA is bearish.

As far as my Evergreen Strategy in Trading and Investing in the Philippine Stock Market (proprietary methodology) is concerned, a stock can only have a confirmed buy signal when its 10SMACD combo and Momentum Power Indicator are both bullish.

Trade-Volume Distribution

Last Price: ₱2.32
Intraday Low: ₱2.2600
Intraday High: ₱2.4500
VWAP: ₱2.3476
Dominant Range: ₱2.32 – ₱2.40

PHA also has a bearish Momentum Power Indicator because its last price is lower than its volume-weighted average price. Also, the dominant range is closer to the intraday low than the intraday high, and some other reasons.

True Market Sentiment EOD – February 3, 2021

True Market Sentiment: BULLISH
7 of the top 10 brokers registered a positive Net Amount
6 of the top 10 brokers registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: ₱2.3461
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: ₱2.3478
13 out of 58 participants, or 22.41% of all participants, registered a 100% BUYING activity
9 out of 58 participants, or 15.52% of all participants, registered a 100% SELLING activity

True Market Sentiment WTD – February 1-3, 2021

True Market Sentiment: NEUTRAL
10 of the top 10 brokers registered a positive Net Amount
5 of the top 10 brokers registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: ₱2.3464
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: ₱2.3494
8 out of 89 participants, or 8.99% of all participants, registered a 100% BUYING activity
11 out of 89 participants, or 12.36% of all participants, registered a 100% SELLING activity

These bullish and neutral True Market Sentiments on the EOD and WTD basis, respectively, support the possibility of seeing a sideways movement but with a bearish bias. As long as the price doesn’t break below P2.24, it’ll reduce the chances of seeing the price retesting the deeper support near P1.65.

Recommendations

Let’s say I don’t have PHA, but I’m planning to do a test-buy. I will consider doing a test-buy once its 10SMACD and Momentum Power Indicator are both bullish. My estimate shows that the MACD will cross above the signal line once the price breaks above P2.61. If you’re one of our clients at Equilyst Analytics, you may ask for our latest PHA insights in the Private Clients Forum once the price draws closer to P2.61. Once both indicators are bullish, I will calculate my reward-to-risk ratio relative to the prevailing price and the position of the immediate support and resistance levels. If I’m satisfied with the reward-to-risk ratio, I will do a test-buy within the prevailing dominant range. Then, I will stick with my trailing stop to preserve my capital, protect my gains, and prevent unbearable losses.

You’ll find my trailing stop calculator, reward-to-risk ratio calculator, average price calculator, and other stock market-related calculators on our stock market library.

On the other hand, suppose I already have PHA. I have the option to hold my position or reduce my percentage of risk on my trailing stop as long as my trailing stop is intact. I won’t consider topping up unless and until the 10SMACD and Momentum Power Indicator of PHA are both bullish.

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Jaycee De Guzman

Founder and CEO at Equilyst Analytics

Experience the expertise of Jaycee De Guzman, the brain of Equilyst Analytics, renowned for his unique data analysis. He is a computer scientist and a self-taught digital marketing strategist and agriculturist. Since Equilyst Analytics’ founding in 2012, over 10,000 local and foreign clients have consulted with Jaycee de Guzman on crypto and stock investments.

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