MerryMart Technical Analysis: Poised to Break Above ₱4.50 or It’s Less Likely?

MerryMart Consumer Corp. (MM) Technical Analysis

MerryMart Consumer Corp. has gone up by 110 percent from its intraday low of ₱1.97 last July 24, 2020 to its closing price of ₱4.14 on November 9, 2020. On Monday, November 9, 2020, MerryMart registered a total turnover value worth nearly ₱244 million.

The foreign investors’ participation is only roughly 4.50 percent of this stock’s total turnover value. Therefore, the local investors were the dominant players. It was a net foreign buying worth ₱9.60 million, but I don’t consider it as a significant participation from the deep-pocketed foreign investors. The previous daily net foreign amounts are not impressive, too.

MerryMart’s last candlestick has significantly distanced itself above the 10-day simple moving average (SMA). Its moving average convergence divergence (MACD) line is also hovering the signal line. I see a bullish divergence between the MACD and the signal lines, which signifies a strengthening upward momentum.

This bullish 10SMACD combo is seconded by the bullish divergence between the positive directional movement index (DMI) and the negative DMI. This bullishness is also confirmed by its average directional index (ADX) of nearly 29 points.

MerryMart is a moderate-risk stock based on its 10-day historical volatility score of 56 percent. This risk level means that the average daily ascent and descent of its price, for the past 10 trading days, is still within the relatively tolerable level for new traders or investors. The price doesn’t move so erratically.

MerryMart’s immediate support sits near ₱3.76, while its immediate resistance is pegged near ₱4.50. On a quick look, it seems that MerryMart is at the intersection of its immediate support and resistance levels. Consider your reward-to-risk ratio before you enter a new position on any stock. Feel free to use our reward-to-risk ratio calculator, which you’ll find in the TOOLS tab of our online stock market library.

Trade-Volume Distribution Analysis

Last Price: ₱4.14
Intraday Low: ₱3.87
Intraday High: ₱4.17
VWAP: ₱4.06
Dominant Range: ₱4.00 – ₱4.14

All four elements of my Momentum Power Indicator for MerryMart are bullish. This stock has a confirmed buy signal because its 10SMACD and Momentum Power Indicator are both bullish.

True Market Sentiment – EOD (November 9, 2020)

True Market Sentiment: NEUTRAL
5 of the top 10 brokers registered a positive Net Amount
5 of the top 10 brokers registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: ₱4.0521
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: ₱4.0539
9 out of 82 participants, or 10.98% of all participants, registered a 100% BUYING activity
26 out of 82 participants, or 31.71% of all participants, registered a 100% SELLING activity

True Market Sentiment – MTD (November 3-9, 2020)

True Market Sentiment: BEARISH
5 of the top 10 brokers registered a positive Net Amount
3 of the top 10 brokers registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: ₱3.8406
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: ₱3.8464
9 out of 100 participants, or 9.00% of all participants, registered a 100% BUYING activity
24 out of 100 participants or 24.00% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity

The tug-of-war between the end-of-day and month-to-date True Market Sentiment statistics is a sign that we should watch out for the immediate resistance near ₱4.50. This conservative stance being given by my two-timeframe True Market Sentiment shows the possibility of a sell-off near the immediate resistance.

Recommendations

Suppose you already have MerryMart and your trailing stop is intact. If that’s the case, you have two data-driven options.

Option 1: Buy more shares. There’s a confirmed buy signal (bullish 10SMACD and Momentum Power Indicator). Do an upward adjustment on your trailing stop every time a higher price is registered. Sell once your trailing stop is hit. Use our trailing stop calculator. Choose this option if you’re a high-risk trader or investor.

Option 2: Hold your position due to the split sentiment between the EOD and MTD True Market Sentiments. It’s either you reduce the percentage of risk on your trailing stop or not. Continue to do an upward adjustment on your trailing stop when applicable. Choose this option if you’re a low- to moderate-risk trader or investor.

Consider the two options above if you don’t have MerryMart yet, but you’re interested in doing a test-buy. Remember to calculate your reward-to-risk ratio before you do a test-buy within the prevailing dominant range. I said, “prevailing dominant range”. The dominant range of a stock is subject to change on a real-time basis. Ask for our latest analysis in our Private Clients Forum if you’re one of our clients so we can give you the latest dominant range of the stock and more.

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Jaycee De Guzman

Founder and CEO at Equilyst Analytics

Experience the expertise of Jaycee De Guzman, the brain of Equilyst Analytics, renowned for his unique data analysis. He is a computer scientist and a self-taught digital marketing strategist and agriculturist. Since Equilyst Analytics’ founding in 2012, over 10,000 local and foreign clients have consulted with Jaycee de Guzman on crypto and stock investments.

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