MerryMart Consumer Corp. Technical Analysis
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MerryMart Consumer Corp. closed on Wednesday, December 23, 2020, at ₱6.04 per share, up by 1.85 percent. MerryMart registered a total turnover value worth nearly ₱144 million. Local traders and investors were the main drivers of the price action. Foreign investors only printed a relatively small ₱2.2 million Net Foreign Buying. Foreign investors are still net sellers year-to-date.
MerryMart moved inside the confirmed buy signal of my proprietary methodology from the last week of October 2020 up to the first 2 to 3 trading days of December 2020. That was when the last price was trading above the 10-day simple moving average, and the MACD was moving above the signal line. In short, my 10SMACD combo was bullish within that period.
While it’s true that the status of my Momentum Power Indicator within that period was intermittently bullish, it managed to quickly transition from bearish to bullish while the 10SMACD combo was bullish.
If you’re one of our clients at Equilyst Analytics and if you spotted this confirmed buy signal on MerryMart during the last week of October 2020, perhaps, you’re still holding your position if your percentage of risk is not lower than 10 percent. That means it’s more likely that your trailing stop is still intact. I don’t need to say what you should do if you’re one of our clients. You should already know the answer after watching my online stock market course (Evergreen Strategy in Trading and Investing in the Philippine Stock Market), which is available in Tagalog and English.
Meanwhile, MerryMart maintains its low-risk level based on its 10-day historical volatility score of nearly 49 percent.
Despite the absence of a confirmed buy signal due to the bearish 10SMACD, it appears that MerryMart still has a strong upward momentum since the positive Directional Movement Index (DMI) hovers the negative DMI. Plus, the Average Directional Index (ADX) is still higher than 25 points. However, please don’t keep your hopes too high because the DMI and ADX are relatively lagging indicators since they rely on historical data. Focus more on the status of the 10SMACD and Momentum Power Indicator of a stock.
MerryMart’s immediate support is near ₱5.80, while its immediate resistance is near 6.40. If it breaks below the immediate support, ₱4.46 will act as the next support. If it breaks above 6.40, the psychological resistance will be near ₱6.95, confluent with 61.80 percent of the reversed Fibonacci.
Trade-Volume Distribution Analysis
Last Price: ₱6.04
Intraday Low: ₱5.81
Intraday High: ₱6.10
VWAP: ₱6.00
Dominant Range: ₱6.04 – ₱6.06
At this point, MerryMart’s Momentum Power Indicator is bullish based on my reading on the statistics of my Momentum Power Indicator. However, like I already said, there’s no confirmed buy signal yet because the 10SMACD combo is bearish.
True Market Sentiment – EOD (December 23, 2020)
True Market Sentiment: NEUTRAL
4 of the top 10 brokers registered a positive Net Amount
6 of the top 10 brokers registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: ₱6.0012
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: ₱6.0052
7 out of 50 participants, or 14.00% of all participants, registered a 100% BUYING activity
10 out of 50 participants, or 20.00% of all participants, registered a 100% SELLING activity
True Market Sentiment – WTD (December 21-23, 2020)
True Market Sentiment: NEUTRAL
7 of the top 10 brokers registered a positive Net Amount
4 of the top 10 brokers registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: ₱6.1194
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: ₱6.1200
6 out of 89 participants, or 6.74% of all participants, registered a 100% BUYING activity
12 out of 89 participants, or 13.48% of all participants, registered a 100% SELLING activity
True Market Sentiment – MTD (December 1-23, 2020)
True Market Sentiment: BEARISH
5 of the top 10 brokers registered a positive Net Amount
3 of the top 10 brokers registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: ₱6.0091
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: ₱6.0229
9 out of 104 participants, or 8.65% of all participants, registered a 100% BUYING activity
10 out of 104 participants or 9.62% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
MerryMart’s True Market Sentiment’s status across all timeframes sends a reminder that you should not be too aggressive on your bullish bias. The end-of-day and week-to-date True Market Sentiments show signs of indecision among the top 10 players or brokers of MerryMart. The month-to-date True Market Sentiment is worst.
If you’re a fan of pigging-backing brokers, I suggest that you monitor the actions of First Metro Securities aside, of course, from COL Financial.
You can always ask for our latest True Market Sentiment and Trade-Volume Distribution charts and interpretations in our Private Clients Forum (on our website) if you’re one of our clients.
Recommendations
I have two conditional options for you if your trailing stop is still intact.
Option 1: If you’re a low-risk trader or investor, you have the option to reduce the percentage of risk of your trailing stop since none of the True Market Sentiment ratings across the three timeframes is bullish. However, make sure that you don’t average down unless and until there’s a confirmed buy signal (bullish 10SMACD and Momentum Power Indicator). You can use my trailing stop calculator from this stock market library.
Option 2: If you’re a high-risk trader or investor, hold your position but do not average down.
On the other hand, do not hurry to do a test-buy if you don’t have MerryMart yet. Wait for MACD to cross above the signal line. When it happens, check if the Momentum Power Indicator is still bullish. If it’s still bullish, calculate your reward-to-risk ratio. You can use my reward-to-risk ratio calculator from our stock market library (https://www.equilyst.com/library/). If you’re satisfied with the reward-to-risk ratio, that’s when you can test-buy within the dominant range based on our Trade-Volume Distribution chart and analysis. Keep in mind that a trader’s satisfaction level on the reward-to-risk ratio is personal and relative. What’s acceptable and satisfying for you may not be enough for me and vice versa.
What’s Next?
If you’re one of our clients, you may post your request for our complete analysis in our Private Clients Forum, so we can also tell you the status of the 10SMACD combo of any of these 10 stocks. Also, it’s best that you review or re-watch our online stock market course (either the English or Filipino-English version) so you’ll understand the core concept of this Trade-Volume Distribution analysis. Since our methodology is unique to us, you won’t find an explanation of our way of doing trade-volume distribution analysis on the internet but on our online stock market course only.
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