DITO Technical Analysis: Sell Now or Wait for a Breakout at ₱12.50?

DITO CME Holdings Corp. Technical Analysis

DITO CME Holdings Corp. registered a new all-time high on Monday, December 28, 2020, at ₱9.89 per share from its year-to-date low of ₱1.00 per share last March 19, 2020. Today’s Day Change is at 12.76 percent, with a total turnover value of nearly ₱1.4 billion. DITO closed at ₱9.81 per share.

Local traders and investors conspired to push the price higher. The foreign investors registered a Net Foreign Buying worth ₱51 million. They’ve been consistently registering a net foreign buying for the past three consecutive trading days. They are also net buyers year-to-date. I noticed that foreign investors have started to buy back in October 2020.

The bullishness of DITO is not a straight upward-moving line. My confirmed buy signal based on my Evergreen Strategy has been on and off. However, the absence of a confirmed buy signal does not mean the presence of a sell signal. At Equilyst Analytics, we only sell if, and only if, our trailing stop is hit. Therefore, it’s not impossible that some of our clients still have a position on DITO. It’s also possible that some of them already sold their shares when their trailing stop got hit.

There is a confirmed buy signal if the 10SMACD and Momentum Power Indicator of a stock are both bullish. Today’s DITO’s 10SMACD is bullish because the last price is moving above the 10-day simple moving average (SMA), and the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) is trading above the signal line.

I’ll tell you the Momentum Power Indicator status of DITO once we reach my trade-volume distribution analysis.

DITO’s immediate support is near ₱8.88, confluent with 78.60 percent of the reversed Fibonacci’s retracement. If it falls below ₱8.88, we’re looking at ₱8.16 as the next support level, confluent with the golden ratio or the 61.8 percent of the reversed Fibonacci’s retracement. Meanwhile, I’m looking at ₱12.50 as the psychological resistance of DITO, which is confluent with the 61.8 percent of the reversed Fibonacci’s extension.

Furthermore, DITO is poised to cross the high-risk level based on its 10-day historical volatility score of nearly 70 percent. I’m referring to the erraticity of the price movement and not your risk tolerance when I talk about a stock’s risk level.

Also, I see another technical indicator that supports the bullishness of DITO. That’s the positive directional movement index (DMI) moving above the negative DMI, with the average directional index (ADX) scoring higher than 25 points.

Take note that these indicators that rely on historical data describe the present and not the future. So, watch your trailing stop always.

Trade-Volume Distribution Analysis

Last Price: ₱9.81
Intraday Low: ₱8.70
Intraday High: ₱9.89
VWAP: ₱9.30
Dominant Range: ₱9.81 – ₱9.85

DITO’s Momentum Power Indicator is also bullish because the last candlestick is green, the last price is higher than today’s volume-weighted average price, the last volume bar is green and is higher than the stock’s 10-day volume average, and the dominant range is closer to the intraday high than the intraday low.

DITO has a confirmed buy signal as far as today’s end-of-day data is concerned.

If and when DITO starts at a price lower than its closing price by the next trading day, watch out for the range between ₱9.00 and ₱9.20. That’s the other dominant range today.

True Market Sentiment EOD – December 28, 2020

True Market Sentiment: NEUTRAL
7 of the top 10 brokers registered a positive Net Amount
5 of the top 10 brokers registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: ₱9.2946
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: ₱9.2857
12 out of 96 participants, or 12.50% of all participants, registered a 100% BUYING activity
18 out of 96 participants, or 18.75% of all participants, registered a 100% SELLING activity

True Market Sentiment MTD – December 1-28, 2020

True Market Sentiment: BEARISH
5 of the top 10 brokers registered a positive Net Amount
4 of the top 10 brokers registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: ₱8.4780
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: ₱8.4714
0 out of 108 participants, or 0.00% of all participants, registered a 100% BUYING activity
5 out of 108 participants or 4.63% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity

It’s relatively risky for new traders or investors at this point since the stock has no historical resistance anymore. It’s risky because new traders are known to be emotional in their decisions, which is quite understandable due to the lack of familiarity with stock-specific behaviors.

The neutral True Market Sentiment for end-of-day and the bearish rating for month-to-date are friendly reminders that we all should keep an eye on our trailing stop regardless of whether we’re experienced or new traders or investors.

Recommendations

Suppose you already have DITO and your trailing stop is intact.

A. If you consider yourself a new trader or investor, I advise that you hold your position and do an upward adjustment on your trailing stop every time DITO registers a higher price. You need to have the time to monitor the price action by the second so you can catch those moments when you need to upgrade your trailing stop. Sell once your trailing stop is triggered. Average up as long as the DITO’s 10SMACD and Momentum Power Indicator are both bullish.

B. If you consider yourself as an experienced trader or investor, you may buy up within the dominant range, but be quick to upgrade your trailing stop when necessary. If you already watched our online stock market course at Equilyst Analytics, you should already know how, when, and why you should do an upward adjustment on your trailing stop.

Now, suppose you don’t have DITO yet. It would be best if you calculated your reward-to-risk ratio first. Since two of the variables you need to use are the immediate support and the psychological resistance of DITO, you might get an attractive reward-to-risk ratio. Please consider that the resistance in your formula is psychological and not a historical one. Don’t forget to be logical while being hopeful. Also, this stock is about to enter the high-risk level (erraticity rating). I advise new traders and investors to stick with low- to moderate-risk stocks until such a time that you are confident with your experience and skills.

What’s Next?

If you’re one of our clients, you may post your request for our complete analysis in our Private Clients Forum, so we can also tell you the status of the 10SMACD combo of any of these 10 stocks. Also, it’s best that you review or re-watch our online stock market course (either the English or Filipino-English version) so you’ll understand the core concept of this Trade-Volume Distribution analysis. Since our methodology is unique to us, you won’t find an explanation of our way of doing trade-volume distribution analysis on the internet but on our online stock market course only.

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Jaycee De Guzman

Founder and CEO at Equilyst Analytics

Experience the expertise of Jaycee De Guzman, the brain of Equilyst Analytics, renowned for his unique data analysis. He is a computer scientist and a self-taught digital marketing strategist and agriculturist. Since Equilyst Analytics’ founding in 2012, over 10,000 local and foreign clients have consulted with Jaycee de Guzman on crypto and stock investments.

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