BDO Unibank, Inc. closed at ₱112.50 per share, up by 1.26 percent, as of February 9, 2021. The local traders and investors were the main drivers of the price action today, but they were only more or less P80 million higher than the foreign investors’ total turnover value.
The foreign investors registered a net foreign buying worth nearly P198 million. They’ve been on a net foreign buying mode for five consecutive trading days. Also, it’s a net foreign buying status year-to-date.
BDO’s main support sits near ₱100.00 while its major resistance stands near ₱116.00. If it breaks below the main support, P85.00 will be the next support level. If it breaks out above ₱116.00, ₱124.00 will be the next resistance level.
The erraticity or risk level of BDO remains low because its 10-day historical volatility is still below 50 percent.
BDO remains bullish, at least, within the past two trading weeks. This bullishness is confirmed by the bullish 10SMACD combo and the bullish divergence between the +DMI and -DMI. However, the upward momentum is still not completely strong because the ADX is still below 25 points. The bullishness of the ADX depends on the breaking out from the major resistance.
I’m impressed by today’s volume because it’s higher than the 100 percent of BDO’s 10-day volume average. BDO will complete the confirmed buy signal if its Momentum Power Indicator is also bullish. Let’s find out in my trade-volume distribution analysis.
Trade-Volume Distribution
Last Price: ₱112.50
Intraday Low: ₱110.5000
Intraday High: ₱113.5000
VWAP: ₱112.4665
Dominant Range: ₱112.50 – ₱112.80
I see a bullish Momentum Power Indicator because all of its four elements are bullish. Therefore, BDO has a confirmed buy signal.
True Market Sentiment EOD – February 9, 2021
True Market Sentiment: NEUTRAL
6 of the top 10 brokers registered a positive Net Amount
4 of the top 10 brokers registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: ₱112.4224
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: ₱112.4125
5 out of 66 participants, or 7.58% of all participants, registered a 100% BUYING activity
31 out of 66 participants, or 46.97% of all participants, registered a 100% SELLING activity
True Market Sentiment WTD – February 8-9, 2021
True Market Sentiment: BEARISH
5 of the top 10 brokers registered a positive Net Amount
2 of the top 10 brokers registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: ₱111.5948
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: ₱111.4429
5 out of 79 participants, or 6.33% of all participants, registered a 100% BUYING activity
33 out of 79 participants, or 41.77% of all participants, registered a 100% SELLING activity
True Market Sentiment MTD – February 1-9, 2021
True Market Sentiment: BEARISH
5 of the top 10 brokers registered a positive Net Amount
4 of the top 10 brokers registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: ₱107.8605
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: ₱107.5402
10 out of 100 participants, or 10.00% of all participants, registered a 100% BUYING activity
17 out of 100 participants or 17.00% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Recommendations
Don’t be too quick to push the buy button if you’re yet to enter a new position. You must calculate your reward-to-risk ratio first. Do a test-buy within the prevailing dominant range if you’re satisfied with the ratio. Post a request for our latest analysis of BDO in our Private Clients Forum if the price within the first three to five minutes of trading tomorrow doesn’t register within today’s dominant range. You can use our stock trading calculators in our stock market library (www.equilyst.com -> Library -> Tools). However, the reward-to-risk ratio at this point may no longer be that attractive to most new entrants since the prevailing price is already closer to the immediate resistance than the support level.
On the other hand, you have two options. It’s either you hold your position or top-up within the dominant range if you already have a base on BDO, provided your trailing stop is still intact. Otherwise, you need to lock-in profits or cut your loss. Remember that your trailing stop represents your tolerable risk. You don’t need to calculate your reward-to-risk ratio because you already have a base. However, consider the tug-of-war of sentiments today for having a neutral True Market Sentiment. Also, consider the bearish True Market Sentiment week-to-date and month-to-date. The big traders and investors of BDO may be eavesdropping with the other big market participants to get a good feel if there’s a strong interest to buy up above the immediate resistance. That’s how I interpret the bearish overall True Market Sentiment across three timeframes. After all, nearly 50 percent of BDO’s market participants (participating brokers) today registered a 100 percent selling activity. It looks like they’re defensive to the possibility of profit-taking near the immediate resistance.
Whatever your decision is, make sure that it blends well with your risk tolerance. Don’t ignore your trailing stop.
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