Apollo Global Capital Technical Analysis
After a month-long semi-J-type ascent on the price of Apollo Global Capital, Inc., APL dropped by 4.23 percent at ₱0.249 on January 12, 2021, Tuesday. APL printed a total turnover value worth P1.026 billion. The local traders were the main drivers of the price action.
The foreign investors only registered a relatively insignificant P8 million net foreign selling. Before this net foreign selling, they had been on a net-buying mode for six consecutive trading days.
The immediate support sits near ₱0.20, while the immediate resistance hangs near ₱0.28. I’m not going to give you the psychological resistance just yet because I deem it too early at this point. Besides, APL still has a ₱0.28 that it needs to break.
The volume was higher than APL’s 10-day volume average. With that red last volume bar, it shows that the selling-spree was done with a convincing volume. My 10SMACD is still bullish, but is the Momentum Power Indicator bullish, too? I’ll let you know in my Trade-Volume Distribution analysis.
Given the unusual ascent in APL price, relative to its historical price movement, it already garnered an extremely high risk level due to its historical volatility score above 100 percent. When a stock has an extremely high risk level, it means it’s subject to register either a very deep dip or a very tall rip. It means APL is no longer a newbie-friendly stock. What’s the rationale behind its not being newbie-friendly anymore? Newbies tend to be emotional and do panicky decisions when a deep dip or a tall rip is spotted. For new traders and investors, I suggest that you stick with low- to moderate-risk stocks. These are the stocks with a historical volatility score not higher than 70 percent.
Although the upward momentum still appears strong based on the Directional Movement Index’s histogram, this is only in favor of those who already got a base on APL. If you are yet to enter a new position on APL, I strongly suggest that you err on the side of caution, especially if you have low risk tolerance.
Trade-Volume Distribution Analysis
Last Price: ₱0.249
Intraday Low: ₱0.246
Intraday High: ₱0.285
VWAP: ₱0.26
Dominant Range: ₱0.249 – ₱0.28
The Momentum Power Indicator of APL is bearish because the last volume bar is red and is higher than the 50 percent of the 10-day volume average. The last price of ₱0.249 is lower than the volume-weighted average price of ₱0.26.
I don’t see a buy signal confirmation for APL as far as the end-of-day data and my methodology are concerned.
True Market Sentiment – EOD (January 12, 2021)
True Market Sentiment: NEUTRAL
6 of the top 10 brokers registered a positive Net Amount
4 of the top 10 brokers registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: ₱0.2597
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: ₱0.2614
22 out of 89 participants, or 24.72% of all participants, registered a 100% BUYING activity
5 out of 89 participants, or 5.62% of all participants, registered a 100% SELLING activity
True Market Sentiment – EOD (January 11-12, 2021)
True Market Sentiment: NEUTRAL
7 of the top 10 brokers registered a positive Net Amount
4 of the top 10 brokers registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: ₱0.2493
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: ₱0.2497
19 out of 96 participants, or 19.79% of all participants, registered a 100% BUYING activity
6 out of 96 participants, or 6.25% of all participants, registered a 100% SELLING activity
True Market Sentiment – EOD (January 4-12, 2021)
True Market Sentiment: BULLISH
6 of the top 10 brokers registered a positive Net Amount
7 of the top 10 brokers registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: ₱0.2028
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: ₱0.1993
10 out of 101 participants, or 9.90% of all participants, registered a 100% BUYING activity
0 out of 101 participants or 0.00% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Recommendations
The overall True Market Sentiment across three timeframes is neutral. Although there’s no sign of an imminent continuous decline in price based on the overall True Market Sentiment, it’s still best not to be overly optimistic on APL, most especially if you’re yet to enter a new position. Those who already have a base on this stock are fine because they’ll have to stick with their trailing stop to protect gains and prevent unbearable losses.
If there are two brokers that you need to watch out for, that would be Wealth Securities and First Metro Securities. The former is bearish, while the latter is bullish. Pay close attention if and when they switch convictions.
I want to reiterate that there is no confirmed buy signal yet for those who are yet to enter a new position because the Momentum Power Indicator of APL is bearish. Even if you wish to force an entry, I don’t think you’ll get a satisfying reward-to-risk ratio because the last price is still closer to the immediate resistance than the immediate support.
If you already have a position on APL, please monitor your trailing stop. Should APL break its immediate resistance, make sure that you quickly do an upward adjustment on your trailing stop to protect more gains. If it continues to dip, check if the prevailing True Market Sentiment is bearish. If it is, you have the option to reduce the applied percentage of risk on your trailing stop. You can use my trailing stop calculator. You’ll find it in our online stock market library.
You may also request for any stock’s True Market Sentiment (or our complete analysis) in our Private Clients Forum as trading happens.
Only those who have watched my online stock market course (The Evergreen Strategy in Trading and Investing in the Philippine Stock Market) can understand my logic and overall strategy. You may know the classic definition of an SMA, an MACD, a DMI, an ADX, or a price action, but know that I use them differently.
What’s Next?
If you’re one of our clients, you may post your request for our complete analysis in our Private Clients Forum, so we can also tell you the status of the 10SMACD combo of any of these 10 stocks. Also, it’s best that you review or re-watch our online stock market course (either the English or Filipino-English version) so you’ll understand the core concept of this Trade-Volume Distribution analysis. Since our methodology is unique to us, you won’t find an explanation of our way of doing trade-volume distribution analysis on the internet but on our online stock market course only.
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