AGI Technical Analysis: Buy More or Wait for a Breakout at ₱11.05?

Alliance Global Group, Inc. (AGI) Technical Analysis

Alliance Global Group, Inc. (AGI) went up by 1.11 percent and closed at ₱10.90 per share as of February 11, 2021, the last trading day of the week. The total turnover value hit almost ₱633 million, with the local traders and investors as the main drivers of today’s price action.

The smart-money (foreign investors) registered a net foreign selling worth ₱119 million today. AGI is on a net foreign selling status year-to-date. Today’s the biggest one-day net foreign selling this year so far. Surprisingly, the market price went up despite the relatively sizable net foreign selling today.

AGI is on the brink of breaking the resistance near ₱11.05 while the immediate support waits near ₱10.00. The next resistance level is near ₱12.00 as a precursor to ₱13.26.

As you can see on the parallel channel drawn on the daily chart of AGI, the last price is still within the uptrend channel. Despite this northbound movement of AGI, its risk level remains low due to its 10-day historical volatility score below 50 percent.

On the other hand, the upward momentum is still not confirmed very strong within the past 14-trading day period because of the short-term downtrend that happened from the third week of December 2020 until the last week of January 2021. The +DMI already hovers the -DMI. I am waiting for the ADX to touch the 25-point mark to say that AGI’s upward momentum is already very strong.

Trade-Volume Distribution Analysis

Last Price: ₱10.90
Intraday Low: ₱10.6000
Intraday High: ₱11.0800
VWAP: ₱10.9171
Dominant Range: ₱10.90 – ₱11.00

Even though AGI’s 10SMACD combo is bullish, its Momentum Power Indicator is bearish due to its volume-weighted average price that’s higher than the closing price. This is a sign of a potential profit-taking activity that may happen near the resistance at ₱11.05. Eyes on your trailing stop.

The average True Market Sentiment across three timeframes is also bearish. It’s seconding the motion to the imminent profit-taking near the resistance. This is subject to change, however.

True Market Sentiment EOD – February 11, 2021

True Market Sentiment: BEARISH
4 of the top 10 brokers registered a positive Net Amount
5 of the top 10 brokers registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: ₱10.9169
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: ₱10.9325
4 out of 54 participants, or 7.41% of all participants, registered a 100% BUYING activity
26 out of 54 participants, or 48.15% of all participants, registered a 100% SELLING activity

True Market Sentiment WTD – February 8-11, 2021

True Market Sentiment: BEARISH
4 of the top 10 brokers registered a positive Net Amount
5 of the top 10 brokers registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: ₱10.8187
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: ₱10.8302
5 out of 78 participants, or 6.41% of all participants, registered a 100% BUYING activity
36 out of 78 participants, or 46.15% of all participants, registered a 100% SELLING activity

True Market Sentiment MTD – February 1-11, 2021

True Market Sentiment: BEARISH
4 of the top 10 brokers registered a positive Net Amount
4 of the top 10 brokers registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: ₱10.5846
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: ₱10.6574
5 out of 84 participants, or 5.95% of all participants, registered a 100% BUYING activity
36 out of 84 participants, or 42.86% of all participants, registered a 100% SELLING activity

Recommendations

Are you planning to enter a new position on AGI? Wait some more. Wait for the 10SMACD and Momentum Power Indicator to become bullish. What if the Momentum Power Indicator became bullish today? Suppose that happened, I still don’t think that you’ll find the reward-to-risk ratio attractive because the last price is closer to the resistance than the support level already. Might as well wait for a breakout and re-assess the presence of a confirmed buy signal after that.

Do you already have a base, and you’re planning to top up? Hold your position for now. There’s no confirmed buy signal. Let’s see if the trend will bounce away or continue past the resistance at ₱11.05. If and when that happens, we might see a confirmed buy signal. You don’t have to stress yourself out! You already have a base, remember?

Whatever your case is, always refer to our Investment Guide for Long-term Investors table if you’re monitoring AGI because it’s part of our investment guide for long-term investing. We update that table twice a day. If you need the update earlier than our scheduled twice-a-day updating, feel free to ask for it in our Private Clients Forum inside the Long-term Investing section.

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Jaycee De Guzman

Founder and CEO at Equilyst Analytics

Experience the expertise of Jaycee De Guzman, the brain of Equilyst Analytics, renowned for his unique data analysis. He is a computer scientist and a self-taught digital marketing strategist and agriculturist. Since Equilyst Analytics’ founding in 2012, over 10,000 local and foreign clients have consulted with Jaycee de Guzman on crypto and stock investments.

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