ACEN Technical Analysis: The Probability of Hitting ₱12.85

AC Energy Philippines Technical Analysis

AC Energy Philippines, Inc. went up by 13.33 percent on the first trading day of 2021 as it closed at ₱10.20 per share, with a total turnover value of nearly ₱665 million.

The local traders and investors occupied a bigger share in today’s price action since the foreign investors’ total turnover value is only at ₱101 million. The foreign investors registered a net foreign buying worth ₱40 million.

Note that over 2 million shares, with an asking price of ₱10.20, were stuck in the ASK spread as of today’s closing bell.

I see ₱9.00 as the immediate historical support of ACEN, while ₱12.85 acts as its immediate psychological resistance. This resistance is confluent with the 61.80 percent extension of the reversed Fibonacci. If it falls below ₱9.00, then ₱8.00 will be the next support level.

The foreign investors have been net buyers of ACEN for seven consecutive trading days. I also like the volume in the past seven trading days because they were all higher than their respective day’s 10-day volume average. That’s one of the few signs I look for to have a data-driven projection of the prevailing trend’s sustainability.

I also like the position of the last candlestick and the MACD. The former is higher than the stock’s 10-day simple moving average, while the latter is higher than the signal line. That makes my 10SMACD combo bullish.

On the other hand, due to the “hyperactive” upward-moving direction of ACEN for the past 10 trading days, you can expect the stock’s historical volatility to move up faster and higher than usual. As of today’s closing, I already regard ACEN as a high-risk stock due to its historical volatility score of 92 percent. For clarification, I’m referring to the stock’s erraticity and not your personal risk tolerance.

Meanwhile, DMI’s histogram shows that the bullishness of ACEN is still relatively strong. The ADX at nearly 58 points seconds the motion. Even though the technical indicators confirm the possibly sustainable bullishness of the price of ACEN, I still strongly suggest that you keep an eye on your trailing stop. The reward-to-risk ratio may no longer be that attractive, especially to newbies at this point.

Trade-Volume Distribution Analysis

Last Price: ₱10.20
Intraday Low: ₱9.15
Intraday High: ₱10.20
VWAP: ₱9.82
Dominant Range: ₱9.90 – ₱10.20

I give ACEN a bullish Momentum Power Indicator since all four elements of my proprietary indicator are bullish. You’ll know what those elements are, where to find them, how to read them, and more in the online stock market course that’s included in our stock market consultancy service.

True Market Sentiment – EOD (January 4, 2021)

True Market Sentiment: NEUTRAL
6 of the top 10 brokers registered a positive Net Amount
2 of the top 10 brokers registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: ₱9.8135
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: ₱9.8370
19 out of 96 participants, or 19.79% of all participants, registered a 100% BUYING activity
13 out of 96 participants, or 13.54% of all participants, registered a 100% SELLING activity

True Market Sentiment (December 1-29, 2020)

True Market Sentiment: NEUTRAL
6 of the top 10 brokers registered a positive Net Amount
5 of the top 10 brokers registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: ₱7.0683
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: ₱7.0375
3 out of 112 participants, or 2.68% of all participants, registered a 100% BUYING activity
9 out of 112 participants or 8.04% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity

Today’s and the past month’s neutral True Market Sentiment charts give us a piece of advice to not be blinded by over-optimism. I suggest that you translate the “neutral” rating as advice to err on the side of caution. Punch the fear of missing out with all your might.

Recommendations

If you’re a newbie who doesn’t have ACEN shares, I suggest that you use this stock as a case study on how to trade stocks that don’t have a historical resistance. ACEN is already a high-risk stock (erraticity-wise). I recommend stocks with a historical volatility score not higher than 70 percent (low- to moderate-risk stocks) for newbies.

If you already have a position on ACEN, you may top up within the dominant range. However, don’t bet all of your buying power because the neutral True Market Sentiment across two timeframes could suggest that some of the top 10 players are already brewing a selling-spree. You can say that it’s only speculation, but it’s a DATA-DRIVEN SPECULATION. My words are based not only on what I “think, feel, or believe,” but on what I see on my datasets.

Do an upward adjustment on your trailing stop every time ACEN registers a higher price. It’s either you reduce your risk tolerance to adjust your trailing stop or hold your position if the 10SMACD or Momentum Power Indicator turns bearish or once the prevailing True Market Sentiment rating for the day becomes bearish.

If you’re one of our clients, you may ask for our latest analysis on this stock’s 10SMACD, Momentum Power Indicator, and True Market Sentiment in our Private Clients Forum as trading happens.

What’s Next?

If you’re one of our clients, you may post your request for our complete analysis in our Private Clients Forum, so we can also tell you the status of the 10SMACD combo of any of these 10 stocks. Also, it’s best that you review or re-watch our online stock market course (either the English or Filipino-English version) so you’ll understand the core concept of this Trade-Volume Distribution analysis. Since our methodology is unique to us, you won’t find an explanation of our way of doing trade-volume distribution analysis on the internet but on our online stock market course only.

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Jaycee De Guzman

Founder and CEO at Equilyst Analytics

Experience the expertise of Jaycee De Guzman, the brain of Equilyst Analytics, renowned for his unique data analysis. He is a computer scientist and a self-taught digital marketing strategist and agriculturist. Since Equilyst Analytics’ founding in 2012, over 10,000 local and foreign clients have consulted with Jaycee de Guzman on crypto and stock investments.

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