Technical Analysis
Universal Robina Corporation (URC) closed on May 8, 2019 at 165.00 per share, which is higher than its volume weighted average price (VWAP) of 161.74. This green candlestick was matched with a green volume bar above the 50% of the 10-day volume average of URC.
There is a support near 142 and a resistance near 167. However, I see 160 as a pre-cursor to the support at 142. For as long as the price is above 142, there’s still a strong probability for the price to break above 167 provided URC will give us a green volume above the 50% of its 10-day volume average. It would be better if it will give us a green volume that is equal to, if not higher than, its 10-day volume average.
Once it breaks out above 142, I see 183 as its next historical resistance. I plotted the Up Fibonacci of URC to see if I will get any confluence between its next historical resistance and the major points of the Fibonacci such as 38.2%, 50%, or 61.8%. The extension at 61.8% is almost in confluence with the historical resistance at 183.
Trade-Volume Distribution Analysis
VWAP: 161.7389
Most Traded Prices: 160.2, 160, 160.7, 160.6, 160.1
Most Voluminous Prices: 165, 160, 160.2, 160.7, 160.1
Despite the intraday recovery of URC, I would say that it’s still not out of the woods. The most traded and most voluminous range is still closer to the intraday low than the intraday high. This shows that the bias of my trade-volume distribution chart is still for the bears.
If you are interested to trade URC tomorrow, I suggest that you wait monitor the price between 159.00 and 161.50, especially if URC will give us a red start.
Sentiment of the Top 10 Players
Trading participants of URC with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of May-08-2019 at 03:30PM:
- 5 out of 32 participants or 15.63% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
- 7 out of 32 participants or 21.88% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
- Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 163.0753
- Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 161.4033
Today’s top 10 players seem bullish on their stance for URC. It’s expected to see institutional brokers trading an index stock. These brokers usually buy near support.
Like what I mentioned above, 159.00 is a precursor to the support at 142. URC touched the 159sh level today. I am speculating that the buy-area of these trading participants was hit. This does not mean that you should piggy-back their move, however. To each his own when it comes to trade setups, please. After all, these confident buyers today are deep-pocketed so they can afford to stick into buying near support level.
Overall Sentiment and Recommendations
Although I am bullish on URC both in the short-term and long-term, I suggest that you trade URC in the short-term with caution. While it’s obvious that URC is in an uptrend in the short-term, the upward momentum is not yet that strong based on the position of my Average Directional Index (ADX).
In connection to this, I suggest that you consider locking-in some of your profits at the 167-170 level. If and when the price breaks above 167, with a green volume that is at least higher than the 50% of URC’s 10-day volume average, my ADX might give me a signal for a strong upward momentum. When that happens, it will be logical to top-up on your URC by using the cash you generated from selling a few tranches. Also, it will then be logical for new entrants to do a test-buy.
Whether you are doing a test-buy or topping-up, please do not buy or sell at any price. Position your buying or selling price within the most traded and most voluminous range. In short, do a new trade-volume distribution analysis like how I did it.
If you don’t have URC and you would like to do a test-buy even before a breakout above 167, I suggest that you calculate your reward-to-risk ratio first in relation to the distance of the current price between the support and resistance levels. If you are happy with your reward-to-risk ratio, then, it’ll be more logical to do a test-buy within the most traded and most voluminous range.
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I hope this helps. If it does, please let me know in the comments Thank you!
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