Does STI Education Systems Holdings (PSE:STI) have enough gas to continue its direction towards the immediate resistance near 0.93 despite the RSI getting closer to the classical overbought level?
No one can tell with certainty. What I can do for you is give you a data-driven forecast so we are not just exchanging opinions based on what you and I “think, feel, or believe” without any reliable basis.
Equilyst Analytics subscribers and The Evergreen Strategy in Trading the Philippine Stock Market seminar attendees knew that the confirmed buy signals appeared last May 29, 2019.
That was the time when the 10SMACD and our Fantastic Four signals were validated.
STI closed today, July 16, 2019, at 0.82 per share, up by 2.50 percent.
Here are the bullish signals that I see on the chart of STI:
- Its 10SMA is already moving above one of the longer-term SMAs. Once it touches 0.90 per share, the 50SMA will have crossed above the 200SMA.
- The 10SMACD combo is still active.
The upward momentum is very strong as confirmed by the ADX score of 35 points and the increasing distance between the +DMI and the -DMI. - Foreign investors have been registering a daily Net Foreign Buying for 24 trading days straight.
- The last volume is higher than the 50% of the stock’s 10-day volume average.
Trade-Volume Distribution
Last Price: 0.82
VWAP: 0.815523826
Most Traded: 0.82 – 0.82
Most Voluminous: 0.82 – 0.82
Even though today’s dominant range is parked closer to the intraday low than the intraday high, this is still bullish for me. Why? It’s because today’s intraday low is yesterday’s intraday high. So whether the dominant range registers itself closer to today’s intraday low or high, I’ll still translate it as a bullish one.
True Market Sentiment
True Market Sentiment of STI as of Jul-16-2019 at 03:30PM, with a last price of 0.8200.
5 of the top 10 brokers registered a positive Net Amount
4 of the top 10 brokers have a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
True Market Sentiment: BEARISH
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 0.8160
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 0.8155
Bonus Info:
5 out of 27 participants or 18.52% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
9 out of 27 participants or 33.33% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
You might be wondering why STI still ended up having a green candlestick if the true market sentiment is bearish.
STI was fortunate today to have the top 1 broker end up with a positive Net Amount. This top 1 broker also has a bigger total turnover value compared to the individual and cumulative total turnover values of the 5 members of the top 10 list with a negative Net Amount. In other words, the bullishness of the top 1 broker outpowered the bearishness of the 5 brokers in the top 10’s list.
The bearish true market sentiment is a fair warning for those who have had STI to be watchful on the price movement, especially now that the RSI is approaching the classical overbought level. This is also a reminder for those who want to enter a new position on STI to strictly calculate their reward-to-risk ratio and only do a test-buy if and when they are satisfied with the reward-to-risk ratio.
Recommendations
If you have had STI, it’s either you hold your position or top-up with the dominant range. It’s a lot easier for you to decide to top-up because you managed to enter at a lower price already.
It’s a different case for those who are yet to enter. If that’s you, know that there’s one extra process you must go through. That’s the calculation of your reward-to-risk ratio. Unless and until you’re satisfied with your RRR, do not test-buy. You’re better off waiting for STI to breakout above the mid-term resistance (I didn’t plot it on the chart) at 0.85 with volume.
If you’re an Equilyst Analytics subscriber, I strongly suggest that you post a request for the stock’s latest Trade-Volume Distribution and True Market Sentiment chart in our Private Clients Forum so we can update you if there are changes on our sentiment.
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