San Miguel Corporation (SMC) closed on Tuesday, September 8, 2020, unchanged at ₱100.00 per share with a total turnover value of ₱47.79 million. The foreign investors registered a net foreign selling worth ₱5.57 million. They are net sellers year-to-date.
SMC’s immediate support is near ₱91.40, while its immediate resistance is near ₱105.50.
Yesterday’s tall red volume bar, which is higher than SMC’s 10-day volume average, supports the probability of seeing the continuation of the stock’s sideways movement with a bearish bias. Besides that, SMC is already moving below its 10-day simple moving average.
SMC’s moving average convergence divergence (MACD) also continues to show a bearish divergence from the signal line. Moreover, SMC’s directional movement index (DMI) remains in a bearish condition. SMC’s strong bearish condition may be confirmed, through the average directional index (ADX), once the price breaks the range between ₱95.00 and ₱97.00.
If anything is consoling about SMC’s technical condition, its low-risk level is due to its historical volatility (HV) score of nearly 29 percent. Does this mean it’s logical to buy a stock just because it has a low-risk level based on its HV score? No. The risk level I’m referring to is the erraticity of the stock’s price movement.
There must be a confirmed buy signal before you entertain the idea of buying the stock. As far as Equilyst Analytics’ methodology is concerned, a stock must have a bullish 10SMACD and a bullish Momentum Power Indicator to have a confirmed buy signal. You will hear me teach the specific details of this matter in the online stock market course of Equilyst Analytics, which is one of our stock market consultancy service’s inclusions.
Trade-Volume Distribution Analysis
Last Price: ₱100.00
VWAP: ₱100.19
Dominant Range: ₱99.95 – ₱100.00
Based on my trade-volume distribution analysis, SMC is more likely to continue moving sideways with a bearish bias. What made me say that?
1. The last candlestick is red.
2. The last price is moving below the 10-day SMA.
3. The last price is lower than SMC’s volume-weighted average price (VWAP).
4. The dominant range is closer to the intraday low than the intraday high.
5. The MACD is moving below the signal line.
6. The last volume bar is red and is higher than the 50 percent of SMC’s 10-day volume average.
True Market Sentiment EOD – September 8, 2020
True Market Sentiment: BULLISH
8 of the top 10 brokers registered a positive Net Amount
6 of the top 10 brokers registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: ₱100.2475
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: ₱100.4278
Bonus Info:
13 out of 28 participants or 46.43% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
6 out of 28 participants or 21.43% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
True Market Sentiment WTD – September 7-8, 2020
True Market Sentiment: NEUTRAL
6 of the top 10 brokers registered a positive Net Amount
5 of the top 10 brokers registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: ₱100.4902
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: ₱100.3565
Bonus Info:
16 out of 41 participants or 39.02% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
6 out of 41 participants or 14.63% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
True Market Sentiment MTD – September 1-8, 2020
True Market Sentiment: NEUTRAL
7 of the top 10 brokers registered a positive Net Amount
5 of the top 10 brokers registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: ₱100.2177
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: ₱100.0965
Bonus Info:
20 out of 60 participants or 33.33% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
6 out of 60 participants or 10.00% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
My overall sentiment for SMC is that it’s more likely to move in a sideways direction with a bearish bias. Why not totally bearish? It’s because the True Market Sentiment for end-of-day was a contrarian to my other data-driven interpretation. Besides, the WTD and MTD True Market Sentiments are both neutral. Take a look at the daily chart of SMC. It’s been moving sideways between the immediate support and resistance since April 2020.
Recommendations
Consider this if you already have SMC in your portfolio and if your trailing stop remains intact:
Do not waste your buying power. How? Do not average down or top up yet. There’s no confirmed buy signal for SMC as of closing on September 8, 2020. Its 10SMACD and Momentum Power Indicator are both bearish. Hold your position if you’re a high-risk investor. Reduce the percentage of risk of your trailing stop if you’re a low-risk investor. You’re welcome to use my trailing stop calculator, which you’ll find in the TOOLS tab of our online stock market library.
If you don’t have a trailing stop, you must calculate it now. It’ll help you preserve your capital, protect your gains, and prevent unbearable losses. I emphasized this in our online stock market course’s sixth lesson through our stock market consultancy service.
Consider this if you don’t have SMC yet in your portfolio:
Do not do a test-buy yet. Wait for SMC’s 10SMACD and Momentum Power Indicator to become bullish. If you’re one of our clients, all you have to do is visit the INVESTORS tab (guide for long-term investors). SMC is one of the 30 blue-chip companies we regularly monitor for long-term investors like you. You don’t need to request our latest analysis because we update our analysis for all 30 index or blue-chip stocks twice a day during the irregular trading hours and four times during the normal trading hours (pre-COVID-19 situation). In our investment guide for long-term investors, you will know which of the 30 blue-chip stocks have a confirmed buy signal. You will also know the best range where to buy if there’s a confirmed buy signal.
Do You Want to Learn How to Analyze This Way?
You may already know SMAs, MACD, DMI, VWAP, support, and resistance, but maybe you’re wondering what 10SMACD, Momentum Power Indicator, and True Market Sentiment are. You’ll learn my entire methodology through the online stock market course of Equilyst Analytics. Access to the online stock market course is just one of the six services you’ll get when you subscribe to our stock market consultancy service. Read the details of our stock market consultancy service so you’ll know how I can make you learn how to invest independently and trade tactically.
You will find tutorials about SMA, MACD, DMI, VWAP, support, and resistance on Google or YouTube, but you will never find the methodology of how I mix and match them. My service is not about giving you a lecture about the definition of these indicators. My service is about teaching you my methods on HOW to use these indicators, WHEN to use them, WHY use them, and more.
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