Just in case you’re new to this website and wondering why I document our past trades, it has been our practice to do this for transparency. We document our trades whether we profited or lose. Regardless of the case, I know that there’s something you can learn based on what we did and did not do.
Other than that, my trade dissections will give you an idea of how we help our clients trade and invest in the Philippine stock market. Through this, you will see how detail-oriented and hands-on are we to our clients.
I added PXP Energy Corporation (PXP) in our Short-term Trading Watchlist last October 26, 2018. In this article, I’ll show you how we traded this stock for 7 trading days to profit 10 to 12 percent on the first round and roughly 15 percent on the second round.
I’ll also show you how we should have profited between 20 to 22 percent if only I stuck to my guns on the first round, which is doing a test-buy when the price moves above the 10-day moving average and when the MACD crosses above the signal line.
Below is what I first posted in the thread of PXP in our Private Clients Forum last October 26, 2018.
Day 1: October 26, 2018
PXP Energy Corporation (PXP) disclosed today that its Board of Directors already approved the subscription of Dennison Holdings Corporation of 340,000,000 common shares at a price of PHP 11.85 per share.
The figure is a 20 percent discount to the stock’s 90-day Volume Weighted Average Price. It is subject to a definitive subscription agreement.
Click here to read the entire report.
Now, here are the pieces of information that are exclusively available for you.
Most active price point(s)/range(s): 17.20, 17.30, 17.40, 17.50, 17.60
Top 10 Players EOD – October 25, 2018
Trading participants of PXP with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Oct-25-2018 at 03:30PM:
4 out of 83 participants or 4.82% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
25 out of 83 participants or 30.12% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 17.3133
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 17.2992
The psychological average price of the top 10 players as of Oct-25-2018 at 03:30PM is from 17.2992 to 17.3133.
Top 10 Players WTD – October 22-25, 2018
Trading participants of PXP with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity from Oct-22-2018 to Oct-25-2018 at 03:30PM:
4 out of 84 participants or 4.76% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
20 out of 84 participants or 23.81% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 17.1469
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 17.0695
The psychological average price of the top 10 players from Oct-22-2018 to Oct-25-2018 is from 17.0695 to 17.1469.
Top 10 Players MTD – October 1-25, 2018
Trading participants of PXP with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity from Oct-01-2018 to Oct-25-2018 at 03:30PM:
4 out of 103 participants or 3.88% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
9 out of 103 participants or 8.74% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 16.4554
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 16.3272
The psychological average price of the top 10 players from Oct-01-2018 to Oct-25-2018 is from 16.3272 to 16.4554.
Recommendation
Test-buy at first. Keep in mind that the top 10 players’ psychological average price yesterday was at 17.30 while the stock closed at 17.60. If you have a 10% risk tolerance, you’ll find this trade setup valid unless the stock retreats below 16.00. If you have a 5% risk tolerance, you should be fine as long as the stock is above 16.72.
In your Arithmetic, consider the fact that transaction fees will eat roughly 3% of your paper gains. That means more or less 2% gains is take-home home gains in a 5% paper gains.
After determining your entry price, make sure that you calculate your trailing stop loss. It must be a trailing stop loss and not a plain stop loss. Please read Newsletter Vol 1 No 13.
If PXP will hit the resistance at 19.00, which is in confluence with the 61.8% Fibonacci extension, that’s a paper gain of roughly 8% (more or less 5% if you’ll deduct the transaction fees).
October 29, 2018 Update
PXP has continued its ascent above the 16.90 support level and is now poised to kiss the resistance at 18.20, which is in confluence with the 38.2% Fibonacci extension.
Do not forget to adjust your trailing stop loss every time the stock registers a new high relative to your initial or previous trailing stop loss. Please read Newsletter Vol 1 No 13 to get a clearer and better understanding of this concept, especially if you’re new to Equilyst Analytics.
A trailing stop loss will protect your gains, preserve your capital, and prevent unbearable losses.
RSI is yet to enter the overbought territory but Stochastic is already showing overbought signs. No worries because we have a trailing stop loss system.
Most active price point(s)/range(s): 17.90, 18.00, 18.10
Foreign Fund Flow
PXP registered a Net Foreign Buying worth P51,722.00 as of October 26, 2018. On a 30-day trading period, PXP is on a Net Foreign Buying worth PHP61,762,896.00.
Risk Level
PXP has a MODERATE RISK level due to its risk percentage of 51.25%.
Top 10 Players EOD – October 26, 2018
Trading participants of PXP with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Oct-26-2018 at 03:30PM:
13 out of 80 participants or 16.25% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
21 out of 80 participants or 26.25% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 17.8788
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 17.9408
The psychological average price of the top 10 players as of Oct-26-2018 at 03:30PM is from 17.8788 to 17.9408.
Top 10 Players WTD – October 22-26, 2018
Trading participants of PXP with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity from Oct-22-2018 to Oct-26-2018 at 03:30PM:
4 out of 93 participants or 4.30% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
20 out of 93 participants or 21.51% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 17.3357
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 17.3747
The psychological average price of the top 10 players from Oct-22-2018 to Oct-26-2018 is from 17.3357 to 17.3747.
Top 10 Players MTD – October 1-26, 2018
Trading participants of PXP with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity from Oct-01-2018 to Oct-26-2018 at 03:30PM:
4 out of 105 participants or 3.81% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
8 out of 105 participants or 7.62% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 16.5710
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 16.4797
The psychological average price of the top 10 players from Oct-01-2018 to Oct-26-2018 is from 16.4797 to 16.5710.
PS: Please read Newsletter Vol 1 No 21.
November 3, 2018 Update
This is an EOD update as of October 31, 2018.
Due to the long weekend, PXP wasn’t able to sustain the bullish volume it registered last week. Therefore, the bullish momentum wasn’t strong enough to break the resistance at 18.20, which is in confluence with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Nonetheless, PXP maintains its bullish position as the closing price is above the shorter-term SMAs and the shorter-term SMAs are above the longer-term SMAs. Also, MACD is above the signal line.
If you’re planning to enter a new position or to add more shares, do it in tranches.
Price-Volume Distribution
Most active price point(s)/range(s): 17.78-17.90
Foreign Fund Flow
PXP registered a Net Foreign Buying worth P3,500,322.00 as of October 31, 2018.
On a 30-day trading period, PXP is on a Net Foreign Buying worth PHP80,608,658.00.
Risk Level
PXP has a MODERATE RISK level due to its risk percentage of 41.24%.
Volume
As of October 31, 2018, at 03:30PM, the volume of PXP is 43.03% of the previous trading day. This stock’s latest volume is still below its 30-day volume average.
Remember the correlation between price and volume.
bullish price + volume above the 30-day volume average = bullish
bullish price + volume below the 30-day volume average = neutral
bearish price + volume above the 30-day volume average = bearish
bearish price + volume below the 30-day volume average = bearish
Top 10 Players EOD – October 31, 2018
Trading participants of PXP with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Oct-31-2018 at 03:30PM:
12 out of 47 participants or 25.53% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
14 out of 47 participants or 29.79% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 17.8397
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 17.8422
The psychological average price of the top 10 players as of Oct-31-2018 at 03:30PM is from 17.8397 to 17.8422.
Top 10 Players WTD – October 29-31, 2018
Trading participants of PXP with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity from Oct-29-2018 to Oct-31-2018 at 03:30PM:
6 out of 87 participants or 6.90% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
11 out of 87 participants or 12.64% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 17.7887
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 17.8152
The psychological average price of the top 10 players from Oct-29-2018 to Oct-31-2018 is from 17.7887 to 17.8152.
Top 10 Players MTD – October 1-31, 2018
Trading participants of PXP with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity from Oct-01-2018 to Oct-31-2018 at 03:30PM:
4 out of 107 participants or 3.74% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
8 out of 107 participants or 7.48% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 16.8300
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 16.8658
The psychological average price of the top 10 players from Oct-01-2018 to Oct-31-2018 is from 16.8300 to 16.8658.
November 8, 2018 Update
I published my November 7 EOD update in the morning of November 8. It was roughly 1.5 hours before the start of trading. Despite the fact that the November 7 trading was supported with volume, I did not discard the possibility for an overnight change of sentiment. Therefore, everyone was reminded to be on top of their personal trailing stop loss.
This is an EOD update as of November 7, 2018.
Price-Volume Distribution
Most active price point(s)/range(s): 19.20
PXP’s ascent was supported with volume. This is looking good. Your trailing stop loss will take care of you.
Top 10 Players EOD – November 7, 2018
Trading participants of PXP with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of Nov-07-2018 at 03:30PM:
9 out of 75 participants or 12.00% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
27 out of 75 participants or 36.00% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 18.9487
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 18.9593
The psychological average price of the top 10 players as of Nov-07-2018 at 03:30PM is from 18.9487 to 18.9593.
Top 10 Players WTD – November 5-7, 2018
Trading participants of PXP with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity from Nov-05-2018 to Nov-07-2018 at 03:30PM:
9 out of 86 participants or 10.47% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
26 out of 86 participants or 30.23% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 18.6705
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 18.6310
The psychological average price of the top 10 players from Nov-05-2018 to Nov-07-2018 is from 18.6310 to 18.6705.
December 5, 2018 Update
The last day of our round 1 was on November 8, 2018. Our clients do not need to be spoon-fed when they should be selling because each one of them is advised to have a trailing stop loss. Once that trailing stop loss is hit, they either sell in full or in tranches.
This is the second time that we’re trading PXP.
First Time: We profited between 10 to 12 percent on the first round of trading PXP. Those who applied a 10 percent risk tolerance must have hit their trailing stop loss on November 8, 2018 already.
Second Time: Noticing that PXP respects the support at 13.66, I have continued to provide daily updates on this stock. This stock is currently priced at 16.04. That’s an unrealized gain of more or less 15 percent since our second re-entry. If you still apply a 10% risk tolerance, you’ll find this stock tradable as long as the price is above 14.44. Please do an upward adjustment to your trailing stop loss when this stock goes above 16.04.
Main Lessons Trading PXP
- Stick to your mastered buy signal indicator. Those of you who frequent my trade dissections and articles know that I use the 10SMA-MACD combination to identify buy signals. I only added PXP in our Short-term Trading watchlist for our clients on October 26, 2018. I should have added this stock on October 18, 2018. That was the day when the price soared above the 10-day moving average and the day when MACD crossed above the signal line. It was also the day when a significant Net Foreign Buying for PXP was registered. My conviction level was not high enough to call the shots on October 18,
2018 due to the relatively lower volume compared to the previous trading day’s volume. Nonetheless, not having the confidence to enter a new position on that day wasn’t a ridiculous decision at all. I remained loyal to my personal barometer of confidence when to take a buy signal with caution or confidence. Earning an approximated profit of 10 to 12 percent on the first round wasn’t bad at all. - It pays to be a contrarian sometimes when local traders are bearish towards a stock but the foreign investors are on a Net Foreign Buying mode. PXP dropped by more or less 15 percent on November 21,
2018 from the previous day’s closing price. Prior to that drop, foreign investors already registered three (3) consecutive days of Net Foreign Buying. So I decided to keep PXP in our watchlist and do a test-buy for the second round. Know that seeing a Net Foreign Buying on a bearishly trending stock is not an absolute indicator that guarantees a price rebound. It doesn’t always work that way. This probability is the reason why doing a test-buy is helpful sometimes instead of going all-in to a stock. - Respect your trailing stop loss. If your trailing stop loss is hit, you sell either in full or in tranches. Do not continue to hold your position when you’re supposed to dispose of your shares. A trailing stop loss preserves your capital, protects your gains (if any), and prevent unbearable losses. You are compelled to calculate your reward-to-risk ratio when you use a trailing stop loss in your strategy. When my clients ask where they should sell, I always tell them to sell when their trailing stop loss is hit. It is supposed to be that simple.
- If you missed the beginning of the first round, you can always play the stock again when the opportunity arises. I overlooked the buy signal from my 10SMA-MACD combination. I snapped my fingers for the not-so-maximized opportunity in round 1 but I moved on quickly. I do not fret on unmaximized opportunities. The next profitable rounds are just waiting to be discovered.
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