Market Sentiment Score of the 14 MSCI Philippines Stocks
Read “MSCI Philippines: Which Philippine Stocks Are In It?” if you’re not familiar with what the MSCI Philippines is.
I found some free time this weekend to share what I know about the month-to-date market sentiment of the 14 stocks that compose the MSCI Philippines.
I’m going to use my proprietary Market Sentiment Index indicator to measure these stocks’ MTD market sentiment. Don’t look for this indicator on your broker’s charting tool. You won’t find it because it’s my own creation. It’s not available on any broker’s platform.
I created this Market Sentiment Index indicator to have a data-driven basis for measuring the strength of the buying and selling confidence of the brokers who actually traded the stock.
The objective method of temp-checking market’s sentiment toward any stock is by means of synthesizing the transactions of those who actually traded the name and not by asking Jane and John Does opinions on social media platforms. Facebook-born commentaries like “to the moon” and “piso ang usapan dyan mga ‘dre” are only entertaining for those who have a single-digit IQ.
Rant’s over. Let’s get started with what you’re here for!
How Do I Use Market Sentiment Index for Decision-Making?
My Market Sentiment Index indicator can have either a bearish or a bullish rating. No neutral.
My interpretation of its rating is always relative to the investor’s intent.
I’ll give you some situation-based examples.
Suppose the Market Sentiment Index rating is bullish. If my trailing stop is intact, its my top-up schedule, and the other indicators of my strategy are bullish, a bullish Market Sentiment Index acts as the confirmation of my methodology’s go signal to top up (average down or average up).
Another scenario: If the share price goes down, but my trailing stop remains intact, the bullish Market Sentiment Index gives me a data-driven reason to hold my position and not to pre-empt my trailing stop.
Another scenario: When the stock nears its support and the bullish Market Sentiment Index persists, it provides data-backed confidence in a potential rebound, as investors are buying dips with assurance against breaking below that level.
Let’s reverse the situation.
Suppose the Market Sentiment Index is bearish. If the share price has been going down for two or more trading days and its Market Sentiment Index is bearish each day, then, pre-empting my trailing stop becomes a more attractive option.
Another scenario: It’s my top-up schedule today. However, the prevailing Market Sentiment Index of my stock is bearish. I will postpone my top-up plan because a bearish Market Sentiment Index means the downtrend is likely to continue. It’s against my Law of Common Sense to buy when my data-driven method says the downtrend is likely to continue.
Another scenario: The stock registers a green day change after long periods of being in the red, but the Market Sentiment Index is bearish. That intraday bullishness could just be a dead cat bounce (temporary surge).
My Market Sentiment Index is not a single-dimensional oscillator like the RSI, where the stock is considered oversold when the score is 20 or lower, and overbought when the score is 80 or higher.
Obviously, I cannot exhaust every single possible scenario in this report. I have no plan to write an e-book this Saturday morning! If you want to pick my brains, avail yourself of my crypto and stock investment consulting service.
Here are the month-to-date (August 1 to 25) Market Sentiment Index charts and statistics for the 14 MSCI Philippines (EPHE) constituents:
BDO Unibank (BDO)
Market Sentiment Index: BEARISH
48 of the 86 participating brokers, or 55.81% of all participants, registered a positive Net Amount
30 of the 86 participating brokers, or 34.88% of all participants, registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
86 Participating Brokers’ Buying Average: ₱141.35782
86 Participating Brokers’ Selling Average: ₱142.20374
9 out of 86 participants, or 10.47% of all participants, registered a 100% BUYING activity
8 out of 86 participants, or 9.30% of all participants, registered a 100% SELLING activity
SM Prime Holdings (SMPH)
Market Sentiment Index: BEARISH
74 of the 94 participating brokers, or 78.72% of all participants, registered a positive Net Amount
44 of the 94 participating brokers, or 46.81% of all participants, registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
94 Participating Brokers’ Buying Average: ₱31.05016
94 Participating Brokers’ Selling Average: ₱31.41590
19 out of 94 participants, or 20.21% of all participants, registered a 100% BUYING activity
2 out of 94 participants, or 2.13% of all participants, registered a 100% SELLING activity
International Container Terminal Services (ICT)
Market Sentiment Index: BEARISH
32 of the 81 participating brokers, or 39.51% of all participants, registered a positive Net Amount
18 of the 81 participating brokers, or 22.22% of all participants, registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
81 Participating Brokers’ Buying Average: ₱206.96627
81 Participating Brokers’ Selling Average: ₱210.19104
5 out of 81 participants, or 6.17% of all participants, registered a 100% BUYING activity
15 out of 81 participants, or 18.52% of all participants, registered a 100% SELLING activity
Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI)
Market Sentiment Index: BEARISH
56 of the 86 participating brokers, or 65.12% of all participants, registered a positive Net Amount
26 of the 86 participating brokers, or 30.23% of all participants, registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
86 Participating Brokers’ Buying Average: ₱111.04700
86 Participating Brokers’ Selling Average: ₱113.62877
12 out of 86 participants, or 13.95% of all participants, registered a 100% BUYING activity
8 out of 86 participants, or 9.30% of all participants, registered a 100% SELLING activity
SM Investments (SM)
Market Sentiment Index: BULLISH
65 of the 83 participating brokers, or 78.31% of all participants, registered a positive Net Amount
44 of the 83 participating brokers, or 53.01% of all participants, registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
83 Participating Brokers’ Buying Average: ₱873.09704
83 Participating Brokers’ Selling Average: ₱878.04501
19 out of 83 participants, or 22.89% of all participants, registered a 100% BUYING activity
1 out of 83 participants, or 1.20% of all participants, registered a 100% SELLING activity
Ayala Land (ALI)
Market Sentiment Index: BEARISH
13 of the 106 participating brokers, or 12.26% of all participants, registered a positive Net Amount
25 of the 106 participating brokers, or 23.58% of all participants, registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
106 Participating Brokers’ Buying Average: ₱28.74850
106 Participating Brokers’ Selling Average: ₱29.00709
1 out of 106 participants, or 0.94% of all participants, registered a 100% BUYING activity
29 out of 106 participants, or 27.36% of all participants, registered a 100% SELLING activity
Ayala Corporation (AC)
Market Sentiment Index: BEARISH
68 of the 92 participating brokers, or 73.91% of all participants, registered a positive Net Amount
44 of the 92 participating brokers, or 47.83% of all participants, registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
92 Participating Brokers’ Buying Average: ₱602.98529
92 Participating Brokers’ Selling Average: ₱606.60880
19 out of 92 participants, or 20.65% of all participants, registered a 100% BUYING activity
2 out of 92 participants, or 2.17% of all participants, registered a 100% SELLING activity
Jollibee Foods Corporation (JFC)
Market Sentiment Index: BEARISH
39 of the 81 participating brokers, or 48.15% of all participants, registered a positive Net Amount
26 of the 81 participating brokers, or 32.10% of all participants, registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
81 Participating Brokers’ Buying Average: ₱248.30695
81 Participating Brokers’ Selling Average: ₱251.73836
9 out of 81 participants, or 11.11% of all participants, registered a 100% BUYING activity
13 out of 81 participants, or 16.05% of all participants, registered a 100% SELLING activity
Universal Robina Corporation (URC)
Market Sentiment Index: BULLISH
63 of the 90 participating brokers, or 70.00% of all participants, registered a positive Net Amount
46 of the 90 participating brokers, or 51.11% of all participants, registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
90 Participating Brokers’ Buying Average: ₱119.07344
90 Participating Brokers’ Selling Average: ₱120.83322
25 out of 90 participants, or 27.78% of all participants, registered a 100% BUYING activity
2 out of 90 participants, or 2.22% of all participants, registered a 100% SELLING activity
Metropolitan Bank and Trust (MBT)
Market Sentiment Index: BEARISH
58 of the 88 participating brokers, or 65.91% of all participants, registered a positive Net Amount
26 of the 88 participating brokers, or 29.55% of all participants, registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
88 Participating Brokers’ Buying Average: ₱55.98499
88 Participating Brokers’ Selling Average: ₱56.90722
12 out of 88 participants, or 13.64% of all participants, registered a 100% BUYING activity
8 out of 88 participants, or 9.09% of all participants, registered a 100% SELLING activity
Manila Electric Company (MER)
Market Sentiment Index: BEARISH
35 of the 83 participating brokers, or 42.17% of all participants, registered a positive Net Amount
27 of the 83 participating brokers, or 32.53% of all participants, registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
83 Participating Brokers’ Buying Average: ₱341.75721
83 Participating Brokers’ Selling Average: ₱344.72406
5 out of 83 participants, or 6.02% of all participants, registered a 100% BUYING activity
17 out of 83 participants, or 20.48% of all participants, registered a 100% SELLING activity
JG Summit Holdings (JGS)
Market Sentiment Index: BULLISH
69 of the 84 participating brokers, or 82.14% of all participants, registered a positive Net Amount
52 of the 84 participating brokers, or 61.90% of all participants, registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
84 Participating Brokers’ Buying Average: ₱39.07157
84 Participating Brokers’ Selling Average: ₱39.18847
21 out of 84 participants, or 25.00% of all participants, registered a 100% BUYING activity
2 out of 84 participants, or 2.38% of all participants, registered a 100% SELLING activity
PLDT (TEL)
Market Sentiment Index: BEARISH
74 of the 95 participating brokers, or 77.89% of all participants, registered a positive Net Amount
44 of the 95 participating brokers, or 46.32% of all participants, registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
95 Participating Brokers’ Buying Average: ₱1258.45943
95 Participating Brokers’ Selling Average: ₱1287.89157
28 out of 95 participants, or 29.47% of all participants, registered a 100% BUYING activity
1 out of 95 participants, or 1.05% of all participants, registered a 100% SELLING activity
Aboitiz Equity Ventures (AEV)
Market Sentiment Index: BULLISH
61 of the 80 participating brokers, or 76.25% of all participants, registered a positive Net Amount
46 of the 80 participating brokers, or 57.50% of all participants, registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
80 Participating Brokers’ Buying Average: ₱49.16813
80 Participating Brokers’ Selling Average: ₱49.34531
20 out of 80 participants, or 25.00% of all participants, registered a 100% BUYING activity
3 out of 80 participants, or 3.75% of all participants, registered a 100% SELLING activity
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