MPI Technical Analysis
Did you read my technical analysis of MPI dated August 21, 2019?
What did I write in that report?
“…my observation tells me that MPI is more likely to re-test 4.50-4.75”
“…With my invalid 10SMACD combo, bearish Momentum Power Indicator, and neutral True Market Sentiment, this leads me to my data-driven assessment that the downward trend is more likely to continue”
Now, let me give you a fresh update on this stock.
Metro Pacific Investments Corporation (MPI) is currently trading at P4.82 per share, down by 0.4132 percent, as of 3:13PM GMT+8 of August 29, 2019. The total turnover value is at P103,401,780.00.
Foreign investors have registered a Net Foreign Selling worth P61,308,310.00. However, the foreign investors remain as net buyers year-to-date courtesy of the Net Foreign Buying amount they registered in February and June this year.
The immediate support of MPI is at P4.74 per share, which is in confluence with the 38.2 percent retracement of the Fibonacci. If it breaks below P4.74, the next support will be near P4.50, which is aligned with the 61.8 percent retracement of the Fibonacci. On the other hand, the immediate resistance is near P5.10.
Apparently, MPI had a hard time breaking above the resistance at P5.10. There were already several unsuccessful attempts to break above P5.10 since October last year. This is where you will experience the habit of using a trailing stop loss in all your trades whether you’re into short-term trading or long-term investing.
This topic about the trailing stop loss is in Less # 6 of The Evergreen Strategy in Trading and Investing in the Philippine Stock Market seminar.
I’ll teach you what I personally do from stock selection to buying to selling. It’s from point A to Z.
Lesson 1: how to identify the best stocks to trade
Lesson 2: how to check if the current trend is more likely to continue
Lesson 3: how to know the true market sentiment
Lesson 4: how to identify a confirmed buy signal
Lesson 5: how to identify the best price range to trade
Lesson 6: how to sell more logically and less emotionally
Here’s the schedule:
- Makati – September 28, 2019
- Davao – October 26, 2019
- Cavite – November 23, 2019
- Baguio – January 25, 2020
- Pampanga – February 29, 2020
- Cebu – March 28, 2020
My 10SMACD combo is already invalid.
MPI is now a moderate-risk stock due to its historical volatility score of 52 percent.
I also see a formation of a bearish convergence with the +DMI and the -DMI.
Trade-Volume Distribution
Last Price: 4.84
VWAP: 4.823068641
Most Traded: 4.83 – 4.82
Most Voluminous: 4.82 – 4.85
The dominant range of MPI is between P4.80 and P4.83. This is closer to the intraday low than the intraday high.
All four elements of my Momentum Power Indicator are absent. Therefore, I got a bearish Momentum Power Indicator for MPI.
The descent in price is more likely to continue.
True Market Sentiment
True Market Sentiment of MPI as of Aug-29-2019 at 03:11PM, with a last price of 4.8400.
4 of the top 10 brokers registered a positive Net Amount
6 of the top 10 brokers registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
True Market Sentiment: NEUTRAL
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 4.8281
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 4.8194
Bonus Info:
17 out of 44 participants or 38.64% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
8 out of 44 participants or 18.18% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
The top 10 brokers do not have a strong appetite to buy the dips of MPI. The main players of MPI are foreign brokers. Unless and until the foreign investors reverse their bearish sentiment on MPI, this stock will continue testing its immediate support level.
Recommendations
Is the current price moving above your trailing stop loss?
Do you have MPI? Is it still trading above your trailing stop loss? If yes, I suggest that you downgrade the percentage of risk applied in calculating your trailing stop loss. Please DO NOT average down. There’s no logical reason to do that regardless if you have a long-term investment horizon.
Averaging down when the price is still more likely to continue is insane if not foolish.
If this were a final exam and your justification on why you’re averaging down on MPI is because you’re in it for the long haul, I promise you that I’m going to give you a big, fat, stinking F for [you fill in the blank]. If that’s how you think, sooner or later you’ll be using the hashtag #HopeandPray on your stock market-related posts on social media to console yourself.
If you attended The Evergreen Strategy in Trading and Investing in the Philippine Stock Market seminar, you should already know how and why you should do this. If you forgot, please review your handouts for Lesson # 6.
Planning to enter a new position?
If you don’t have MPI but you’re planning to enter a new position, I suggest that you postpone your plan. My 10SMACD combo is invalid. My Momentum Power Indicator is bearish. I see no signs of a bullish reversal yet. There are no data-driven reasons to do a test-buy.
If you’re a subscriber of Equilyst Analytics, I strongly suggest that you post a request in our Private Clients Forum for MPI’s latest Trade-Volume Distribution and True Market Sentiment charts as soon as the prevailing candlestick turn into green.
The Evergreen Strategy in Trading and Investing in the Philippine Stock Market SEMINAR
- Makati – September 28, 2019
- Davao – October 26, 2019
- Cavite – November 23, 2019
- Baguio – January 25, 2020
- Pampanga – February 29, 2020
- Cebu – March 28, 2020
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