MerryMart Consumer Corp. closed on June 17, 2020 with a total turnover value of ₱321,719,620.00. It registered its third ceiling play in a row, and closed at ₱3.37 per share.
I still find the difference relatively sizable if I remove the value of total cross trades worth P63,002,520.00 from the total turnover value when I do volume-analysis.
The local investors were still the main drivers of this stock. The foreign investors registered a relatively Net Foreign Buying worth ₱9,313,280.00.
A total of 6,780 unserved bids, with a total bid volume of 109,253,000, got stuck at ₱3.37 per share as of market closing on June 17, 2020.
Is MerryMart Consumer Corp. tuned to give us a fourth ceiling play at ₱5.05 on June 18, 2020?
Let me show you first what I see on my Trade-Volume Distribution and True Market Sentiment charts. Making a bullish conviction solely based on the unserved bid volume is not enough for me to make a trade decision with conviction.
Trade-Volume Distribution
Last Price: ₱3.37
VWAP: ₱3.36654
Dominant Range: ₱3.37 – ₱3.37
I give the bulls two bonus points because of two things. Firstly, MerryMart Consumer Corp.’s last price of ₱3.37 was not lower than its volume weighted average price of ₱3.37 (when rounded off to the nearest hundredth). Secondly, the dominant price point of MerryMart Consumer Corp. yesterday was the the intraday high itself, which is ₱3.37.
True Market Sentiment
True Market Sentiment on MM as of Jun-17-2020 at 01:00PM with a last price of ₱3.37
True Market Sentiment: NEUTRAL
6 of the top 10 brokers registered a positive Net Amount
4 of the top 10 brokers registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: ₱3.3666
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: ₱3.3635
Bonus Info:
4 out of 101 participants or 3.96% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
30 out of 101 participants or 29.70% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
PNB Securities, Inc. (a stock broker) was the second biggest trading participant of MerryMart Consumer Corp. in terms of total traded value as of market closing on June 17, 2020. Even if I remove its cross-trade with a total 1 million shares at ₱3.37 per share, that’s just a mere 5 percent of this broker’s total turnover value. Besides, it won’t help in making the True Market Sentiment bullish.
Nonetheless, this neutral True Market Sentiment is a data-driven reminder for all of us to stay alert on our trailing stop. We need to react based on what we see and not on what we hope to see. It’s better to be a present-tense investor than a future-tense one.
Recommendations
The recommendation I wrote in the article that I published before the start of trading on June 17, 2020 stays the same. Just change the price I mentioned on the first sentence of my recommendation from ₱2.25 to ₱3.37.
Read this article: MerryMart Consumer Corp (PSE:MM) Analysis: Likely to See a Third Ceiling Play?
If you choose to top up or enter on a new position, there’s a data-driven reason to do that. However, do it in tranches. Also, don’t lose your eye on your trailing stop.
If you’re using a trailing stop, you don’t need to ask me or anyone the famous question, “Is it good to sell now?”
Sell when your trailing stop is hit. That’s the purpose of its existence. This is what I emphasized in the sixth lesson of The Evergreen Strategy in Trading and Investing in the Philippine Stock Market. It’s my proprietary online stock market course. You’ll get access to it when you subscribe to the stock market consultancy service of Equilyst Analytics.
Finally, let me re-share with you what I do when I trade IPO stocks.
Summary of How I Trade IPO Stocks
- I do a test-buy when the stock debuts in the Philippine Stock Exchange. I buy in tranches.
- I top up only when the last candlestick is green and when the last price is above the volume weighted average price.
- I top up within the dominant range generated by my Trade-Volume Distribution chart. Also, it would be better if the True Market Sentiment is bullish.
- I monitor my trailing stop because I want to preserve my capital, protect my gains, and prevent unbearable losses.
- I reduce the percentage of risk applied in my trailing stop when the last candlestick turns red and when the dominant range is already closer to the intraday low than the intraday high, especially when the True Market Sentiment becomes bearish.
- I sell when my trailing stop is hit.
Feel free to use my online trailing stop calculator. You’ll find it in the TOOLS tab of our online stock market library.
Read the details of the stock market consultancy service of Equilyst Analytics to know how we can help you learn how to invest independently and trade tactically.
Do you have questions? Ask below. If you’re one of our clients, ask in the Private Clients Forum so I can prioritize you and give you more details in my response.
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