Importance of Knowing Investors’ Market Sentiment in Decision-Making
How do you gauge the market sentiment?
By running a survey or observing discussions on stock market-related Facebook Groups?
But how do you verify the integrity or objectivity of their comments? That’s the problem!
Occasionally, I run surveys on Facebook Groups, but not to check the market sentiment but to ask them which stock they’d like me to write about in my next article. That way, I maintain the objectivity of my stock selection process as far as when deciding which stock to feature in my articles.
I check the overall market sentiment rating of a stock to help me decide whether I should hold my position since my trailing stop is still intact or pre-empt it.
The market sentiment also helps me estimate if the prevailing direction of the share price is likely to continue or reverse.
For example, if the stock is in a downtrend and the prevailing market sentiment is bearish, it means the downtrend is likely to continue.
If the stock is in a downtrend, but the market sentiment turns bullish, it’s a sign that investors might see a bullish reversal.
Again, and again, notice the adverbs I’m using – “likely” and “might”. We’re still talking about probabilities and not certainties.
Still, it’s better to be data-driven and be proven wrong by the market than make decisions based on gut feeling alone. The former gives you the opportunity to optimize something while the latter doesn’t.
I have an extensive explanation about why I created my proprietary Market Sentiment Index indicator in some articles on my website. Use the SEARCH box on this website and type “Market Sentiment” to read my other articles where I talked about this subject.
MTD Market Sentiment for the Top 5 Holdings Stocks (TTM Price Change)
The price point for August 30, 2023 is as of recess (12 pm).
Formula: (Price on August 30, 2023 – Price on August 30, 2022) / Price on August 30, 2022 x 100
Rank: 5
Stock Code: GTCAP
Company: GT Capital Holdings, Inc.
Price Change (August 30, 2022 – August 30, 2023): 14.59%
Computation: (P561.50 – P490.00) / P490.00 x 100 = 14.59%
Market Sentiment Index: BEARISH
29 of the 89 participating brokers, or 32.58% of all participants, registered a positive Net Amount
26 of the 89 participating brokers, or 29.21% of all participants, registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
89 Participating Brokers’ Buying Average: ₱540.03945
89 Participating Brokers’ Selling Average: ₱543.99054
5 out of 89 participants, or 5.62% of all participants, registered a 100% BUYING activity
29 out of 89 participants, or 32.58% of all participants, registered a 100% SELLING activity
Rank: 4
Stock Code: COSCO
Company: Cosco Capital, Inc.
Price Change (August 30, 2022 – August 30, 2023): 17.01%
Computation: (P5.09 – P4.35) / P4.35 x 100 = 17.01%
Market Sentiment Index: BEARISH
15 of the 44 participating brokers, or 34.09% of all participants, registered a positive Net Amount
19 of the 44 participating brokers, or 43.18% of all participants, registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
44 Participating Brokers’ Buying Average: ₱5.23921
44 Participating Brokers’ Selling Average: ₱5.25949
8 out of 44 participants, or 18.18% of all participants, registered a 100% BUYING activity
12 out of 44 participants, or 27.27% of all participants, registered a 100% SELLING activity
Rank: 3
Stock Code: AGI
Company: Alliance Global Group, Inc.
Price Change (August 30, 2022 – August 30, 2023): 21.37%
Computation: (P12.38 – P10.20) / P10.20 x 100 = 21.37%
Market Sentiment Index: BEARISH
26 of the 68 participating brokers, or 38.24% of all participants, registered a positive Net Amount
25 of the 68 participating brokers, or 36.76% of all participants, registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
68 Participating Brokers’ Buying Average: ₱12.27990
68 Participating Brokers’ Selling Average: ₱12.46927
9 out of 68 participants, or 13.24% of all participants, registered a 100% BUYING activity
12 out of 68 participants, or 17.65% of all participants, registered a 100% SELLING activity
Rank: 2
Stock Code: MPI
Company: Metro Pacific Investments Corporation
Price Change (August 30, 2022 – August 30, 2023): 37.27%
Computation: (P5.12 – P3.73) / P3.73 x 100 = 37.27%
Market Sentiment Index: BEARISH
45 of the 97 participating brokers, or 46.39% of all participants, registered a positive Net Amount
39 of the 97 participating brokers, or 40.21% of all participants, registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
97 Participating Brokers’ Buying Average: ₱4.98889
97 Participating Brokers’ Selling Average: ₱5.00627
17 out of 97 participants, or 17.53% of all participants, registered a 100% BUYING activity
21 out of 97 participants, or 21.65% of all participants, registered a 100% SELLING activity
Rank: 1
Stock Code: LPZ
Company: Lopez Holdings Corporation
Price Change (August 30, 2022 – August 30, 2023): 43.61%
Computation: (P4.38 – P3.05) / P3.05 x 100 = 43.61%
Market Sentiment Index: BEARISH
7 of the 28 participating brokers, or 25.00% of all participants, registered a positive Net Amount
7 of the 28 participating brokers, or 25.00% of all participants, registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
28 Participating Brokers’ Buying Average: ₱4.36291
28 Participating Brokers’ Selling Average: ₱4.36844
3 out of 28 participants, or 10.71% of all participants, registered a 100% BUYING activity
16 out of 28 participants, or 57.14% of all participants, registered a 100% SELLING activity
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