The last time I spotted a confirmed buy signal with a relatively acceptable reward-to-risk ratio on Jollibee Foods Corporation was in the first week of August 2020. That was the time when the price was ranging between P128.00 and P135.00. Using my Evergreen Strategy and applying a 10 percent risk would have made you lock in your profits in the third week of January 2021 when the price touched P190.00. Suppose your entry price was at P135.00. Selling it at P190-apiece still made you roughly a 40 percent profit. You can’t complain, can you?
Today, JFC printed a total turnover value worth P235 million. It was a close fight between the local and foreign traders and investors regarding being the main driver of today’s price action. The local traders and investors won in that category. The foreign investors retreated with a net foreign selling worth nearly P99 million.
Did you know that the deep-pocketed foreign investors have been on a selling-spree for 28 straight trading days? That means they’ve done nothing but to become net sellers of JFC every day this 2021. By the looks of what’s happening, I see no sign of them stopping.
JFC already broke below the previous support at P185.20, which is now the resistance. The support is pegged at P169.20.
If anything is consoling about JFC, that would be its low-risk level due to its 10-day historical volatility score of 18 percent. It means no erratic price actions have happened, at least, within the past 10 trading days.
But don’t base your decision to hold your position off of that premise because the DMI confirms that the downward momentum remains strong.
With all these things being said, a confirmed buy signal remains far from sight because JFC’s 10SMACD combo and Momentum Power Indicator are both bearish.
Trade-Volume Distribution Analysis
Last Price: ₱180.00
Intraday Low: ₱180.0000
Intraday High: ₱185.6000
VWAP: ₱182.1935
Dominant Range: ₱180.00 – ₱180.00
The dominant price is the intraday low itself. I don’t see any other dominant range on JFC’s trade-volume distribution chart because there’s so much “noise” on the chart, and it shows that the biggest volume and the highest number of trades are concentrated at P180.00.
True Market Sentiment EOD – January 26, 2021
True Market Sentiment: BEARISH
4 of the top 10 brokers registered a positive Net Amount
4 of the top 10 brokers registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: ₱181.6727
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: ₱182.1754
32 out of 57 participants, or 56.14% of all participants, registered a 100% BUYING activity
5 out of 57 participants, or 8.77% of all participants, registered a 100% SELLING activity
True Market Sentiment WTD – January 25-26, 2021
True Market Sentiment: BULLISH
6 of the top 10 brokers registered a positive Net Amount
8 of the top 10 brokers registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: ₱183.8938
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: ₱183.4837
32 out of 68 participants, or 47.06% of all participants, registered a 100% BUYING activity
8 out of 68 participants, or 11.76% of all participants, registered a 100% SELLING activity
True Market Sentiment YTD – January 4-26, 2021
True Market Sentiment: NEUTRAL
6 of the top 10 brokers registered a positive Net Amount
4 of the top 10 brokers registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: ₱191.7218
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: ₱191.6810
21 out of 103 participants, or 20.39% of all participants, registered a 100% BUYING activity
12 out of 103 participants, or 11.65% of all participants, registered a 100% SELLING activity
The overall True Market Sentiment across the three timeframes is neutral. There’s not much inspiration we can get from the True Market Sentiment to hold position. I don’t think holding one’s position on JFC is enough. You got to do something more prudent than just holding your position.
RECOMMENDATIONS
Only a reckless trader and investor will do a test-buy on JFC at this point insofar as today’s price action is concerned. Patiently wait for the 10SMACD and Momentum Power Indicator of JFC to become bullish. If you’re one of our clients at Equilyst Analytics, you may refer to our INVESTMENT GUIDE FOR LONG-TERM INVESTORS’ table since we update that table twice throughout the trading period. You can see there if it’s already starting to register a bullish 10SMACD and/or Momentum Power Indicator.
On the other hand, I will only believe that your trailing stop is still intact if your applied risk percentage is at least 20 percent. If that’s your true case, please be reminded that your tolerable risk is only up to P170.00 if we consider the taxes and fees. Knowing that there are no signs of selling exhaustions yet, it’s more prudent to reduce the applied percentage of risk on your trailing stop instead of just holding your position and doing nothing more.
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