Technical Analysis
Philippine Infradev Holdings Inc. (IRC) closed on July 30, 2019 at 1.79 per share, up by 3.47 percent. This stock is up by 1.79 percent WTD, down by 3.76 percent MTD, and down by 20.44 percent YTD.
IRC’s immediate support is near 1.60 while the immediate resistance is near 2.00. IRC is still trading in a range for me since it is still locked inside this range.
Despite today’s tall green volume bar, foreign investors registered a contrarian move with their Net Foreign Selling worth P10.80 million. It is their biggest one-day Net Foreign Selling since January 25, 2019.
RSI remains in the neutral level but it’s upward-sloping already. IRC’s risk level remains low with its historical volatility of 45 percent.
The momentum is still in the neutral level as can be seen on the DMI chart. The divergence between the +DMI and the -DMI is not that significant yet. It’s confirmed that IRC has been in the consolidation phase for a while already.
My 10SMACD combo was re-validated and my Momentum Power Indicator went bullish last July 22, 2019. That was a confirmed buy signal within the dominant range on that day.
You can’t just enter a new position in any stock just because you feel like doing it. You got to have a data-driven basis. This is one of the many things I teach in our The Evergreen Strategy in Trading the Philippine Stock Market. Click here to read the testimonials of those who attended this advanced technical analysis seminar.
Trade-Volume Distribution
Last Price: 1.79
VWAP: 1.79976468
Most Traded: 1.82 – 1.8
Most Voluminous: 1.82 – 1.8
Today’s dominant range is between 1.78 and 1.82. This makes the bullishness of my proprietary Momentum Power Indicator remain true. If you’re trading IRC, I strongly suggest that you monitor it within that range, especially during the market opening tomorrow. It might continue playing with that range again.
True Market Sentiment
True Market Sentiment of IRC as of Jul-30-2019 at 03:30PM, with a last price of 1.7900.
7 of the top 10 brokers registered a positive Net Amount
7 of the top 10 brokers registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
True Market Sentiment: BULLISH
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 1.8038
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 1.7963
Bonus Info:
10 out of 42 participants or 23.81% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
12 out of 42 participants or 28.57% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
With my bullish True Market Sentiment, I’d say that the ascent in price of IRC is more likely to continue. But make sure you’re on top of your trailing stop loss since the price can always act as a contrarian regardless of how much data you’ve used. You’re trading in a sentiment-driven market, after all.
Recommendations
So, you’ve learned in my The Evergreen Strategy in Trading the Philippine Stock Market seminar that it’s a confirmed buy signal when the 10SMACD combo becomes valid and the Momentum Power Indicator becomes bullish. If you managed to enter a new position on IRC last July 22 and you’d like to top up, you have a data-driven reason to do so but do it within the dominant range.
Do not be like the peso-cost averagers and followers of the Buy Below Price system who buy at any price for as long as the share price is below their Buy Below Price. There’s not much logic to that. I already showed you why you should bury that idea for good during the seminar. You can do better than them.
Now, if IRC starts at a price lower or higher than the dominant range at the opening tomorrow, you must post a request for the stock’s latest Trade-Volume Distribution and True Market Sentiment charts in our Private Clients Forum so we can update you if you should continue the plan to top up and at what price you should position.
On the other hand, if you don’t have a position on IRC yet and you’re planning to enter a new position only now, I suggest that you calculate your reward-to-risk ratio first. During the seminar, I showed you how to calculate your reward-to-risk ratio with respect to the position of the last price and the immediate support and resistance levels. I taught you why you must calculate it first despite the presence of confirmed buy signals. Please refer to the handouts for a refresher.
If, and only if, you’re satisfied with your reward-to-risk ratio, that’s the time you should position within the dominant range. Now, just like what I’ve advised to those who who have had IRC, post a request for the stock’s latest Trade-Volume Distribution and True Market Sentiment charts in our Private Clients Forum so we can update you if it still makes sense to continue your plan to do a test-buy.
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