ICT Technical Analysis
Int’l Container Terminal Services, Inc. (ICT) closed on August 2, 2019, Friday, at 129.70, down by 3.93 percent. ICT is down by 11.41 percent WTD, down by 1.67 percent MTD, but up by 49.08 percent YTD.
Support is at 120, which is aligned with the 61.80 percent retracement of the Up Fibonacci. Resistance is at 148.00. If it breaks below 120, the next support will be near 103.
My proprietary 10SMACD combo is invalid. My proprietary Momentum Power Indicator is bearish. These are signs that the downtrend is more likely to continue.
In addition to that bearish sentiment, the foreign investors registered a Net Foreign Selling worth P87.4 million. However, they remain as net buyers YTD because of the Net Foreign Buying days they registered from February to May.
RSI is approaching the classical oversold level. The risk level of ICT remains low due to its historical volatility score below 50.
The DMI also confirms that the downtrend is very strong. I still do not see any formation of a bullish convergence between the +DMI and -DMI. This is another agreement with my bearish sentiment on ICT based on the prevailing data I’ve checked.
Trade-Volume Distribution
Last Price: 129.70
VWAP: 130.2577252
Most Traded: 129.8 – 130
Most Voluminous: 129.6 – 129.7
The dominant range is between 129.60 and 130.60. The favorite range is closer to the intraday low than the intraday high. This is a signal that the downtrend is still more likely to continue.
True Market Sentiment
True Market Sentiment of ICT as of Aug-02-2019 at 03:30PM, with a last price of 129.700.
6 of the top 10 brokers registered a positive Net Amount
5 of the top 10 brokers registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
True Market Sentiment: NEUTRAL
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 130.2121
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 130.7092
Bonus Info:
22 out of 49 participants or 44.90% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
1 out of 49 participants or 2.04% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Would you like to know if the top 10 brokers are aggressively buying the dips? They don’t. In fact, my True Market Sentiment is neutral. It’s still too early to say that the deep-pocketed investors are interested to catch a falling knife.
Recommendations
If you have been following my methods either because you attended The Evergreen Strategy in Trading the Philippine Stock Market seminar or subscribed to the subscription service of Equilyst Analytics, I am sure that you already locked in your gains a long time ago on ICT. You are using a trailing stop loss like what I trained you to do, aren’t you?
But what if you don’t know the concept of a trailing stop loss yet? Here’s my suggestion. If your average price is higher than the current price, your formula for calculating your trailing stop loss is this: average price – (average price x percentage of risk tolerance)
On the other hand, if your average price is less than the current price of ICT, your formula will be this: current price – (current price x percentage of risk tolerance)
Nonetheless, I suggest that you pre-empt your trailing stop loss because signals show that the downtrend is more likely to continue.
Now, are you planning to enter a new position on ICT? Not yet. The 10SMACD combo is invalid and the Momentum Power Indicator is bearish. It’s better to wait for these decided sellers to reach an exhaustion level. Let them get tired of selling ICT. Let the 10SMACD combo to be re-validated. Let all four criteria of the Momentum Power Indicator become present again before you entertain the idea of doing a test-buy on ICT.
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