Technical Analysis
Holcim Philippines, Inc. (HLCM) closed at 15.10 as of 12 noon of May 10, 2019. HLCM is up by 260 percent 2019 YTD from its closing price of 5.80 per share last December 28, 2018.
HLCM stayed in the capitulation period for more or less 2 years. After finding its psychological bottom near 5.80, HLCM started to disrespect all classical overbought levels of oscillators.
The historical support is near 1.20 while the psychological resistance is on the 61.8% of the Up Fibonacci extension at 17.60.
RSI is traversing the classical overbought territory but instead of translating that as a sell signal, I advise that you check other indicators. Maybe, its position inside the classical overbought level is not a sell signal but a confirmation of its strong upward momentum as affirmed by the ADX on the DMI’s histogram. In addition to that, the ascent in price is still matched with a bullish volume (green volume bar that is higher than HLCM’s 10-day volume average).
Despite HLCM’s adrenaline rush towards to the northward direction, historical volatility remains on the moderate risk level. This shows that this stock goes up in an organic fashion. What does that mean? It goes up not in an erratic manner. Simply put, it goes up naturally without going far and beyond its average Day Change for the past 30 trading days.
On the other hand, foreign investors are bearish on HLCM for 2019 YTD. They’ve started to throw up HLCM shares in March 2019. This is one scenario where we can say that foreign investors are not the dominant market-movers all the time.
Trade-Volume Distribution Analysis
VWAP: 15.3198
Most Traded Prices: 15.2, 15.3, 15.02, 15.26, 15
Most Voluminous Prices: 15.3, 15, 15.2, 16, 15.02
If you’ve been reading my previous posts, you know that it’s a bearish signal for me when the most traded and most voluminous range is closer to the intraday low than the intraday high. That’s the situation in HLCM’s trade-volume distribution chart. Is that bearish or bullish? It’s still bullish for me. Why? It’s because the intraday low of HLCM is higher than yesterday’s closing price.
Despite my bullish reading on the trade-volume distribution chart of HLCM, you still have to be cautious on your trade decisions for this stock because HLCM’s last price is way below its VWAP of 15.32. That means traders are still searching for a rational reason why they should buy HLCM at a price higher than 15.32. They’re still in an eaves-dropping mode.
Top 10 Players Sentiment
Trading participants of HLCM with a 100% Buying and Selling Activity as of May-10-2019 at 12:00PM:
- 20 out of 78 participants or 25.64% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
- 15 out of 78 participants or 19.23% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
- Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 15.3041
- Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 15.2756
I see mixed sentiments on my top 10 players chart also. Some traders have locked-in their profits already near 15.28. The nearly-balanced distribution of 100% buyers and sellers confirms that traders of HLCM are in an eavesdropping mode to one another. Everyone is waiting for each other’s next big move.
Overall Sentiment and Recommendation
Although I’m bullish on HLCM, I strongly advise that you strictly follow your trailing stop loss. You can pre-empt your trailing stop loss once any of the four criteria below becomes false.
- green candlestick
- last price above the VWAP
- green volume bar above the 50% of the stock’s 10-day volume average
- most traded and most voluminous range is closer to the intraday high than the intraday low
Pre-empting a trailing stop loss means selling even before your trailing stop loss gets hit.
If you do not have HLCM yet and you’d like to take advantage of its strong upward momentum, I suggest that you calculate your reward-to-risk ratio first with respect to the current price and its distance between the historical support and psychological resistance. If you’re happy with your reward-to-risk ratio, test-buy within the most traded and most voluminous range only for a higher chance of getting your transaction fulfilled. Cut your losses if the upward momentum abruptly becomes sluggish.
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I hope this helps. If it does, please let me know in the comments Thank you!
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