Holcim Philippines, Inc. (HLCM) closed July 17, 2020 with a final price of P5.50 per share and a total turnover value of ₱8.4 million. HLCM went up by 1.85 percent.
Foreign investors were relatively inactive on HLCM as they only registered a Net Foreign Buying worth ₱1.8 million last Friday. These deep-pocketed foreign investors registered some massive buying activities when HLCM hit somewhere near ₱6.20 and ₱5.30 per share this July 2020. Apart from those relatively huge buying activities, I don’t see any other relatively huge buying activities coming from the foreign investors year-to-date.
I was expecting HLCM to re-test the support near ₱4.30 when it broke below ₱5.70. Apparently, traders are trying to save the price above 5-apiece. Once the mid-support at ₱5.00 is broken, it’ll be more likely for HLCM to retest ₱4.30. HLCM’s immediate resistance is pegged near ₱5.70, which is a precursor to ₱7.00. Refer to my daily chart below to see the support and resistance levels of HLCM.
I categorize HLCM as a high-risk stock due to its historical volatility score of 77 percent. This means I don’t see this stock as a newbie-friendly stock anymore in as far as its previous price actions are concerned.
I’d also say that the bears are still very much in control based on the histogram of HLCM’s Directional Movement Index (DMI). Its -DMI hovers the +DMI with an Average Directional Index score of 40 points. That ADX above 25 points concurs that HLCM is still not out of the woods, so to say. Eyes on your trailing stop, please.
Trade Volume Distribution Analysis
Last Price: ₱5.50
VWAP: ₱5.40177
Dominant Range: ₱5.50 – ₱5.50
Even if last Friday’s closing price of ₱5.50 is higher than HLCM’s volume weighted average price of ₱5.40, the last price is still moving below the 10-day simple moving average. That tandem makes my 10SMACD bearish.
There’s no confirmed buy signal when either of my 10SMACD or Momentum Power Indicator is bearish. Therefore, I see no confirmed buy signal for HLCM as far as its last Friday’s activity is concerned.
While the dominant price point of ₱5.50, which is at the intraday high itself, is a strand of hope for those who already have a position on HLCM and whose trailing stop is still intact, this is not yet the most logical scenario for those who are yet to enter on a new position on HLCM. That’s something I want you to understand about my methodology. My methods might give you a different recommendation depending on whether you already have a position or not on a particular stock. I don’t need to expound on this if you are one of our clients at Equilyst Analytics because you have an access to my online stock market course (The Evergreen Strategy in Trading and Investing in the Philippine Stock Market).
True Market Sentiment Analysis
True Market Sentiment: BEARISH
4 of the top 10 brokers registered a positive Net Amount
3 of the top 10 brokers registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: ₱5.3833
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: ₱5.3992
Bonus Info:
5 out of 22 participants or 22.73% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
5 out of 22 participants or 22.73% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
This bearish True Market Sentiment seconds the motion to my bearish stance on this stock. Last Friday’s candlestick is green, but its volume on that day was less than the 50 percent of HLCM’s 10-day volume average. In other words, I still see the daily volume of HLCM relatively low to create a bullish conviction.
Recommendations
My recommendation is predicated to the status of your trailing stop if you already have a position on HLCM. If your trailing stop is still intact, I don’t recommend averaging down. Do not buy the dips yet. It’s not logical to believe that you’re buying more for less when it’s still more likely for the stock’s price to go down. Don’t waste your buying power. Hold your position as long as your trailing stop is still intact.
Now, if you’re a low-risk trader, you may want to hold your position and reduce the percentage of risk on your trailing stop. Use my trailing stop calculator and other trading calculators on the TOOLS section of our online stock market library.
On the other hand, stay on a wait-and-see mode if you don’t have HLCM. It’s more logical to do a test-buy once both 10SMACD and Momentum Power Indicator are bullish. However, you need to request for our latest analysis of HLCM (or any stock) in our Private Clients Forum (if you’re one of our clients) so we can give ad hoc updates on this stock. I am not going to update this article everyday and multiple times a day.
Once both 10SMACD and Momentum Power Indicator are bullish, you may do a test-buy within the dominant range that you will see on the Trade-Volume Distribution chart and analysis that we will give you in our Private Clients Forum. You need to request for our latest analysis in our forum first.
Now, if you want to learn my proprietary methodology and be able to analyze like how I analyze, you may want to consider availing of our stock market consultancy service at Equilyst Analytics. We will teach how to invest independently and trade tactically for one year. You have one year to master our ways. That’s more than enough. You cannot be too busy to study after subscribing because I am not going to allow you to re-subscribe if your only reason is you were too busy last year to study what you subscribed into. Our goal is to make you independent and tactical.
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