Bank of the Philippine Islands recovered by 1.55 percent and closed at ₱65.50 with a total turnover value of ₱195 million as of closing on Wednesday, August 5, 2020. Foreign investors are the main traders of BPI today with a Net Foreign Selling worth ₱18 million. Foreign investors are net sellers year-to-date.
BPI’s immediate support is near ₱63.90 (precursor to ₱56.85) while its immediate resistance is near ₱69.50 (precursor to ₱78.00).
I don’t see a formation of a bullish convergence between the MACD and the signal line. Although the -DMI and +DMI are bending toward each other, BPI needs to break out above ₱69.50 for us to see a bullish divergence between the +DMI and -DMI. The bears are still in control based on the current position of the -DMI above the +DMI with an ADX score of 21 points.
The risk level of BPI remains low due to its historical volatility score of nearly 60 percent. However, don’t treat that as a signal to buy. I use historical volatility to measure the price’s erraticity, which I translate as “risk level”. You’ll know more about this in the online stock market course of Equilyst Analytics.
Trade-Volume Distribution Analysis
Last Price: ₱65.50
VWAP: ₱65.69013
Dominant Range: ₱65.50 – ₱66.00
Do you think we got a confirmed buy signal because BPI closed the day with a green candlestick and a green volume bar higher than the 50 percent of its 10-day volume average?
I don’t see a confirmed buy signal yet because of two reasons. BPI’s 10SMACD and Momentum Power Indicator are both bearish. For one, BPI’s last price of ₱65.50 is lower than its volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of ₱65.69. That adds up to the bearishness of its Momentum Power Indicator. It’s not enough that the dominant range is closer to the intraday high than the intraday low. My Momentum Power Indicator has four elements.
You’ll also learn in the online stock market course of Equilyst Analytics (available in Tagalog and English) the elements of both indicators, why I created them, how I generate them, how I interpret them, etc.
True Market Sentiment EOD (End-of-Day) – August 5, 2020
True Market Sentiment: NEUTRAL
6 of the top 10 brokers registered a positive Net Amount
5 of the top 10 brokers registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: ₱65.7301
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: ₱65.6060
Bonus Info:
14 out of 43 participants or 32.56% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
7 out of 43 participants or 16.28% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
True Market Sentiment WTD (Week-to-Date) – August 3-5, 2020
True Market Sentiment: BEARISH
5 of the top 10 brokers registered a positive Net Amount
3 of the top 10 brokers registered a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: ₱65.2031
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: ₱65.0872
Bonus Info:
30 out of 75 participants or 40.00% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
6 out of 75 participants or 8.00% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
Both EOD and WTD True Market Sentiments concur to the lack of a buy signal. This week, UBS Securities is the most aggressive net seller among the top 10 trading participants of BPI. On the other hand, CLSA Philippines is the leading net buyer among the top 10 trading participants. So, if monitoring brokers’ activities is part of your strategy, those two brokers are what you should watch out for.
However, please know that I do not individually monitor broker activities but the consolidated activities of the top 10 trading participants of a stock. You’ll know more about the significance of this True Market Sentiment in my overall strategy in the online stock market course of Equilyst Analytics.
Recommendations
Do you already have BPI in your portfolio? Hold your position if your trailing stop is still intact. If BPI continues to re-test the support near ₱63.90, you may want to consider reducing the percentage of risk on your trailing stop. You will find my trailing stop calculator on the TOOLS tab of the online stock market library of Equilyst Analytics.
Meanwhile, it’s a different story if you are not using a trailing stop. I don’t recommend peso-cost averaging. Read the articles below to know why.
How to Invest Better than the Peso-Cost Averaging Method
Peso-Cost Averaging at Buy Below Price: Nakakatulong Ba Talaga?
You don’t have BPI yet, but you’re planning to enter a new position? If you believe my proprietary strategy, I don’t recommend doing a test-buy unless and until BPI’s 10SMACD and Momentum Power Indicator are both bullish. BPI must close above ₱67.40 for a higher chance of seeing a bullish 10SMACD and Momentum Power Indicator. Once those two indicators are bullish, calculate your reward-to-risk ratio. You’ll find my reward-to-risk ratio calculator in the TOOLS tab of our online stock market library also.
If you’re one of our clients, it’s best to check the INVESTORS tab. We update our rating and recommendation for BPI, together with the 29 other blue-chip stocks, twice a day (during the shortened trading hours) in the INVESTORS tab. We can also guide you as trading happens through our Private Clients Forum.
Read how we can help you learn how to invest independently and trade tactically through our stock market consultancy service at Equilyst Analytics.
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