Chelsea Logistics and Infra Hdgs Corp. (PSE:C) closed on July 10, 2019, Wednesday, at 7.35, which is 9.82 percent lower than the previous closing price. The immediate support is near 7.18 while the immediate resistance is near 9.10.
Just in case you’re thinking that you have an attractive reward-to-risk ratio just because the current price is closer to the immediate support than the immediate resistance, I suggest that you think twice.
Why?
The downward momentum does not show any sign of exhaustions yet. You don’t want to enter a new position in this situation.
My 10SMA-MACD combo has already been invalidated.
Those who attended my The Evergreen Strategy in Trading the Philippine Stock Market seminar and the subscribers of Equilyst Analytics understand the significance of this combo. Click here to see if I have a scheduled stock market seminar in your area.
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Quick advertisement: I will be in Cebu City on July 13, 2019 to teach the following:
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how to identify the best stocks to trade when you’re busy
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how to identify a confirmed buy-signal
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how to check if the current trend is more likely to continue
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how to identify the price range where it’s best to trade
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how to know the true market sentiment
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how to sell more logically and less emotionally
Chelsea has a high-risk level already with its historical volatility hitting a 96 percent as of closing on Wednesday. RSI is inching toward the classical oversold level. Please don’t translate an RSI score of 20 or below as a buy signal. A downward-moving stock that shows no signs of exhaustions can get cheaper than its prevailing price.
Another bearish signal is the bearish divergence between the +DMI and -DMI. The latter already crossed above the former. With the ADX moving above 25 points and in connection to the position of the -DMI above the +DMI, Chelsea already has a strong downward momentum.
The foreign investors got tired buying the dips, too. They registered a Net Foreign Selling worth P4.5 million as of market closing on Wednesday.
The 4-point criteria that I use to see if I can pre-empt my 10SMA-MACD combo are also absent. Those who attended my advanced stock market seminar entitled The Evergreen Strategy in Trading the Philippine Stock Market and the subscribers of Equilyst Analytics understand the significance of this pre-emption technique.
Trade-Volume Distribution
Last Price: 07.3500
VWAP: 7.5885
Most Traded Prices: 7.5, 7.4, 7.55, 7.35, 7.6
Most Voluminous Prices: 7.5, 7.4, 7.35, 7.6, 7.7
Another bearish signal is the concentration of the dominant range toward the intraday low. When the dominant range is closer to the intraday low than the intraday high, the descent in price is more likely to continue.
True Market Sentiment
True Market Sentiment of C as of Jul-10-2019 at 03:30PM, with a last price of 07.3500.
5 of the top 10 brokers registered a positive Net Amount
6 of the top 10 brokers have a higher Buying Average than Selling Average
True Market Sentiment: Neutral
Top 10 Players’ Buying Average: 7.6200
Top 10 Players’ Selling Average: 7.6028
Bonus Info:
29 out of 81 participants or 35.80% of all participants registered a 100% BUYING activity
7 out of 81 participants or 8.64% of all participants registered a 100% SELLING activity
The majority of the top 10 brokers of Chelsea yesterday did not buy the dips. You do not have to hurry in entering a new position if the deep-pocketed top 10 brokers don’t show a high interest to buy the dips.
Recommendation
If you have Chelsea in your portfolio already and if it is trading above your trailing stop loss, I suggest that you pre-empt your trailing stop loss. Do I see a data-driven sign that would make it worth it to pre-empt your trailing stop loss? Yes. You have just read those reasons.
If you do not have Chelsea and are planning to enter a new trade in this stock, please postpone that plan. Let the dust settle down first.
To all subscribers of Equilyst Analytics, I suggest that you post request for the latest Trade-Volume Distribution and True Market Sentiment charts of Chelsea in our Private Clients Forum if it starts today at a price that is either lower or higher than the dominant range I mentioned above.
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